- Hayes says AI credit losses could trigger U.S. support, potentially aiding Bitcoin.
- Apollo estimates AI infrastructure spending could reach $5 trillion through 2030.
- OpenAI and Anthropic cited safety concerns, not weaker demand, for slower AI work.
Arthur Hayes says a downturn in artificial intelligence spending could benefit Bitcoin if credit losses were to prompt U.S. government support. In his essay, Safety First, the BitMEX co-founder argued that weaker AI demand could strain infrastructure financing and trigger measures that increase dollar liquidity.
Government Support Forms Bitcoin Thesis
Hayes described two responses to the deteriorating economics of AI infrastructure. Washington could become a “compute buyer of last resort,” supporting capacity through government spending or agreements to purchase computing services.
Alternatively, authorities could support insurers if losses on private credit threatened their ability to meet policyholder claims. Hayes expects either response to increase borrowing and overall liquidity, either through banking channels or monetary support, potentially benefiting Bitcoin and other crypto assets. That scenario contrasts with the Fed’s current tightening stance, with rates recently raised to 3.75%–4.00%.
AI Financing Faces Revenue Questions
The possible pressure point, Hayes argues, lies in the debt financing of data centers, chips, and related infrastructure. Reduced computing demand could weaken the revenues supporting those investments.
Apollo’s research highlights the scale of AI financing, though it does not confirm Hayes’s crisis scenario. The firm estimated that AI infrastructure spending could reach roughly $5 trillion through 2030, requiring about $2 trillion in annual AI services spending to justify that investment.
A September 21 Apollo note also highlighted expectations for five hyperscalers. Consensus forecasts project operating cash flow at Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle rising from $600 billion to $2 trillion by 2030. Apollo warned that weaker growth could widen credit spreads and reduce capital expenditure.
AI Firms Cite Safety Over Demand Slowdown
Hayes linked those financial risks to calls for slower frontier AI development, suggesting softer demand could help explain the shift. However, the companies offered different explanations. OpenAI said cybersecurity concerns and stronger internal safeguards prompted a slowdown in parts of frontier development in August. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urged the industry to pace development so safety controls could catch up with capabilities.
Hayes’s outlook hinges on whether stress in AI financing spills into broader liquidity support. While firms cite safety concerns over demand weakness, any slowdown could still pressure credit markets. If that triggers policy intervention, Bitcoin may benefit from the resulting liquidity expansion.
Related: Bitcoin Miners Pivot to AI Data Centers: Is AI Worth More Than BTC?
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
