- Bitcoin rose 37.5% to $79,671 even as CLARITY Act passage odds fell to 18%.
- Bitcoin ended Sept. 15 up 30.4% from $57,950 despite weaker CLARITY Act odds.
- Robinhood, Morgan Stanley, and DTCC advanced crypto products as bill odds weakened.
Bitcoin’s summer rally showed crypto adoption could advance even as Washington’s market-structure timetable weakened. However, the September 15 Senate vote showed congressional certainty still influenced prices.
The Senate failed to invoke cloture on the CLARITY Act, with the 49–50 vote falling short of the 60 votes required to advance the measure. Even so, the legislation was not necessarily finished. Senator Thom Tillis entered a motion to reconsider, preserving a procedural path for another attempt.
Meanwhile, BTC later traded near $75,900 as broader macroeconomic pressures added to the regulatory uncertainty. Oil remained above $100, Treasury yields were rising, and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continued to weigh on risk assets.
Bitcoin Defies CLARITY Act Odds Despite Senate Vote Setback
Despite those pressures, Bitcoin’s broader summer performance told a different story. A Bitwise chart tracking Polymarket showed passage odds falling from about 39% in July to roughly 18% around September 15. Over the same period, Bitcoin climbed from the referenced $57,950 level to a peak of $79,671.
That advance equaled about 37.5%, which explains the rounded 38% figure. However, the percentage reflects Bitcoin’s rise to its interim peak rather than its return through September 15. CoinGecko recorded Bitcoin at $75,590 that day, placing the end-to-end gain from $57,950 at about 30.4%.
Even with that distinction, the broader divergence remained clear. Bitcoin advanced while expectations for the CLARITY Act weakened, showing that crypto adoption was not entirely dependent on the immediate passage of one bill.
However, the vote-day decline still showed that regulatory developments continued to influence market sentiment. At the same time, broader macroeconomic pressures meant the selloff could not be attributed solely to regulatory risk.
Wall Street Advances as Agency Rules Bridge Congress Gap
Even as legislative odds weakened, institutional development continued. Robinhood launched the public mainnet of Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 for tokenized real-world assets.
Morgan Stanley also introduced a Galaxy referral arrangement allowing clients to lend cryptocurrency and receive crypto ETP shares as repayment. Meanwhile, DTCC completed production trades using tokenized DTC-held securities in July, before its October tokenization-service launch.
Regulators were also moving under existing authority. In March, the SEC issued a crypto interpretation, while the CFTC provided related guidance. The SEC then followed in August with the proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, extending agency rules while Congress debated market structure.
However, SEC Chair Paul Atkins said legislation remained indispensable for rules durable enough to withstand reversal by future regulators. That distinction captures the broader market message.
Bitcoin’s rally showed adoption could continue despite falling CLARITY Act odds. Yet the Senate reaction showed congressional certainty still carried value, as legislation offers greater durability than agency policy alone.
Related: What the CLARITY Act Senate Failure Means for BTC as $75K Support Faces Test
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