Bitcoin Price Prediction: Iran’s Strait U-Turn In 24 Hours Leaves BTC Stuck Below $78,100

• BTC trades at $77,082, breaking the descending channel with MACD turning positive on the daily for the first time since October.
• Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending BTC to $78,100, then closed it again within 24 hours after the US said its naval blockade would not end.
• Polymarket gives 55% odds BTC closes above $80,000 in April, up 42% from last week, on $30.4M in volume.

BTC trades at $77,082 on April 18 after one of the most chaotic 24-hour macro swings of the year. Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, sent BTC to $78,100, then closed it again within hours after the US confirmed its naval blockade stays in place, leaving the $80,000 Polymarket target hanging by a thread heading into weekend talks.

BTC Daily Chart: Channel Breaks And MACD Turns Positive For The First Time Since October

BTC Daily Price Action (Source: TradingView)

The descending channel from the October peak near $128,000 has broken to the upside. Price at $77,082 has cleared both the channel upper boundary and the 100-day EMA at $75,331, with the 20-day at $72,567 and 50-day at $71,748 now sitting below as support. The 200-day EMA at $82,935 is the next resistance above.

The MACD fast line at $720 crossed above the signal line with the histogram turning positive at $1,126, the first bullish cross on the daily since October. Price breaking the channel and MACD confirming at the same time is the strongest technical signal BTC has printed since the October peak. The ascending wedge from the February low also has price above its upper boundary near $75,000, adding a second layer of confirmation.

Key levels for April 19:

• 50-day EMA support: $71,748
• 20-day EMA support: $72,567
• 100-day EMA / former channel boundary: $75,331
• 200-day EMA resistance: $82,935
• Polymarket consensus target: $80,000
• February high: $78,100

Polymarket Prices 55% Odds BTC Closes Above $80,000 In April

BTC Polymarket Data (Source: Polymarket)

Polymarket has $30.4M in volume on the April BTC price question. The $80,000 level sits at 55%, up 42% from last week. $85,000 at 12%, $90,000 at 3%, and the $65,000 downside at 10%. The April 19 specific range of $76,000 to $78,000 sits at 63% probability on $164,302 in volume.

The move from under 15% to 55% on the $80,000 target happened in a single week on the back of the Hormuz reopening. Iran closing it again within 24 hours puts that momentum at risk. Twelve days remain until May 1, and $80,000 is roughly 4% above current price, but the path just narrowed.

Iran Opened The Strait, Then Closed It Again: Here Is What Happened?

Trump posted on Truth Social Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was completely open and ready for business after Iran’s foreign minister confirmed commercial vessel passage had resumed. Oil dropped from $91 to under $81, BTC hit $78,100, the S&P 500 pushed to a fresh high near 7,125, and Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin all gained more than 5% in 24 hours.

Then within 24 hours, Iran’s joint military command issued a statement saying control of the Strait had returned to its previous state under strict management of the armed forces. The reversal came after Trump confirmed the US naval blockade would remain in full force until a deal is reached. Talks are expected this weekend. The strait handles roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG supply. Its closure returning puts inflation risk, rate hike fears, and risk-off pressure back on the table heading into Sunday.

BTC Price Prediction: April 19 Outlook

• Upside: Weekend talks produce a deal, the US lifts its blockade, Iran reopens the strait for real, and BTC closes above $78,100 on renewed risk appetite. MACD staying positive and the channel breakout holding above $75,331 keeps the technical case intact. Polymarket’s $80,000 target at 55% remains achievable with 12 days left in April.

Downside: Weekend talks collapse, Iran keeps the strait closed, and BTC loses the 100-day EMA at $75,331 on a daily close as risk-off sentiment returns. The 50-day EMA at $71,748 is the next support. Polymarket’s 10% odds on the $65,000 downside scenario reflect exactly this tail risk heading into the weekend.