- Bitcoin price prediction for November stays bearish below $80,181, with $76,463 the support to hold
- Binance users withdrew a net $3.64 billion on reopening Sunday after a record $6.3 billion hack
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $515.03M in October, their first monthly outflow since June, per SoSoValue
Bitcoin price prediction for November stays bearish below $80,181, the 20-day average BTC needs to reclaim after October’s 7.32% drop.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Hold the 200-Day EMA in November?
BTC holds its November floor while daily closes stay above the 200-day EMA at $76,463.43, which price touched during last week’s selloff. At $78,201.83, down 0.07% today, it sits between the 100-day EMA at $77,767.74 and the 20-day and 50-day EMAs at $80,180.51 and $80,224.72, about 2.5% overhead. The rising line of the triangle that began in August gave way in late October, and price is now just under it.
The 20-day EMA has slipped below the 50-day, which shows October’s rally has faded. RSI at 39.38 sits under its average of 43.23 and the neutral 50 mark, so momentum still leans down.
BTC looks more likely to spend November under the 20 and 50-day EMAs and retest $76,463 than to clear $83,000, and a daily close below $76,463 would put the $75,000 mid-September low in play.
BTC Support and Resistance Levels, November 2026
| Type | Price | Why it matters |
| Resistance | $80,225 | 50-day EMA, beside the 20-day at $80,181 |
| Resistance | $83,000 | Weekly level Cowen watches |
| Resistance | $87,000 | Early-September and early-October highs |
| Support | $77,768 | 100-day EMA |
| Support | $76,463 | 200-day EMA, touched in hack week |
| Support | $75,000 | Mid-September low |
Binance Reopens After a Record $6.3 Billion Hack and Sees $3.64 Billion in Net Withdrawals
According to a report by Osmond Chia cited by BBC, Binance users withdrew a net $3.64 billion on Sunday after the exchange reopened following a hack that affected $6.3 billion of digital assets. Binance said it processed $4.649 billion of withdrawals and $1.01 billion of deposits between 06:00 and 15:30 GMT on November 1. The net outflow was just over 2% of the $171 billion it holds for customers, and Binance said withdrawals are stabilizing after an initial spike.
Related: MEET48 Price Prediction: Can a 208% Weekly Rally Push IDOL Toward $0.030?
The FBI and other organizations have blamed North Korea’s TraderTraitor group, also known as Lazarus. Binance said it has replaced about 95% of the stolen assets from its corporate treasury, futures insurance and emergency reserve funds, and the rest will take longer. Early checks suggest the attack started with an engineer’s compromised laptop.
CryptosRUs Says the Hack and a Tech Selloff Drove Last Week’s Drop
YouTuber CryptosRUs said Bitcoin fell to about $76,000 last week as the Binance hack and a tech selloff on weak earnings hit crypto, then recovered to about $78,000. He called that better than expected given the size of the hack and said a return to $81,000 is possible if the bounce continues. He also said Strategy’s Michael Saylor hinted at more Bitcoin purchases.
For this week he is watching:
- Earnings: Apple and Palantir on Monday, AMD on Tuesday, and ARM and Qualcomm on Wednesday.
- Jobs data: A mini jobs report on Tuesday and the main report on Friday.
- Midterms: US midterm elections are approaching.
Benjamin Cowen Says the Midterm-Year Pattern Still Points to a Lower Low
Benjamin Cowen of Into the Cryptoverse said in a Halloween video that BTC has reached the bull market support band, the zone around the 20-week average, after a second weekly close below $83,000. He compared the setup with 2015, when two weekly closes below a retested high were followed by a visit to the band and then a roughly 40% one-week capitulation. He stressed that he does not want to be overly deterministic after this year’s rally.
- Rate hikes: After the first hike of a hiking cycle, in 2015 and 2022, BTC traded at least 20% below the hike price. A 20% drop from here is about $62,560, which he ties to the range lows.
- Anthropic IPO: He expects it between November 16 and 20 and notes BTC bled before the SpaceX IPO and bottomed shortly after. Investors may sell BTC to raise cash for the offering.
- Gold ratio: If the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio returns to its range low near 10 with gold at $3,800, BTC would be near $40,000, close to the $38,000 balance price. He calls that a tail risk, not a forecast.
US Bitcoin ETFs Post Their First Monthly Outflow Since June
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $515.03M in October, ending two straight months of inflows. That follows $2.65B in September and $3.52B in August. Total net assets fell to $98.14B from $107.98B at the end of September, a drop of about 9%. The outflow is small beside last November’s $3.48B, nearly seven times larger.
Bitcoin Seasonality: A Weak October Meets a Strong Historical November
October 2026 was a poor month for Bitcoin, but November has historically been one of its best. Midterm years have not followed that pattern consistently.
- October 2026: BTC fell 7.32%, its fourth-worst October in 17 years of data and the worst since 2014. A typical October gains about 10.92%, going by the median.
- November history: BTC rose in 10 of the last 16 Novembers, with a median gain of 10.26%. The 34.95% average is inflated by 2013 (+453.6%). Without that year, it drops to about 7%.
- Midterm Novembers: The record is split. BTC gained 12.46% in 2010 and 11.74% in 2014, then lost 36.41% in 2018 and 16.23% in 2022.
- After a red October: November fell in three of the five earlier cases (2011, 2018 and 2025).
A typical November would lift BTC from $78,202 to about $86,200, just under the $87,000 highs. A repeat of 2022 would put it near $65,500. History points up, while the midterm record and the chart point to caution, so a reclaim of $80,225 early in the month would show seasonality winning.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Week-by-Week Forecast for November 2026
The base case has BTC capped under $80,225, testing the 200-day EMA near $76,463 once around the Anthropic IPO window, and ending the month back inside $77,000 to $83,000.
| Period | Expected range | Key levels | What decides it |
| Nov 2 to 8 | $75,500 to $82,000 | $76,463 support, $80,225 resistance | Big tech earnings and Friday’s jobs report |
| Nov 9 to 15 | $74,500 to $82,500 | $75,000 support, $83,000 resistance | A retest of the 200-day EMA |
| Nov 16 to 22 | $73,000 to $81,000 | $75,000 support, $80,225 resistance | The Anthropic IPO window |
| Nov 23 to 30 | $74,000 to $85,000 | $76,463 support, $83,000 resistance | Direction after the IPO |
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for November
Bullish Case, Target: $87,000
BTC holds the 200-day EMA at $76,463, closes above the 50-day at $80,225 and the 20-day at $80,181, then clears the $83,000 weekly level Cowen watches. That would open the $87,000 highs, close to the $86,200 a median November implies. A calm Anthropic IPO window and steady ETF flows would fit this path.
Bearish Case, Risk Level: $76,463 (200-Day EMA)
BTC stays under the 20 and 50-day EMAs and closes below the 100-day at $77,768 and the 200-day at $76,463, which would put the $75,000 mid-September low in play. A 20% drop from here, about $62,560, is the level Cowen links to the range lows. Selling ahead of the Anthropic IPO and more ETF outflows would fit this path.
FAQs
BTC stays bearish below $80,181 and could test $83,000 and then $87,000 if it closes above the 50-day EMA at $80,225. A daily close below the 200-day EMA at $76,463 would put the $75,000 mid-September low in play.
Historically yes, with a median return of +10.26% and gains in 10 of 16 Novembers. Midterm years have been weaker, with Novembers in 2018 and 2022 falling 36.41% and 16.23%.
CryptosRUs ties the drop to the Binance hack and a tech selloff on weak earnings, which took BTC to about $76,000 before it recovered. The chart shows the low landing on the 200-day EMA at $76,463.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $515.03M in October, their first monthly outflow since June, according to SoSoValue. Cumulative net inflows stand at $56.98B.
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