Bitcoin Price Prediction: RSI Hits 23 as BTC ETFs Bleed Back to Pre-Election Levels

• BTC trades at $61,433 with daily RSI at 23.85, the most oversold reading since the February 2026 low
• Spot Bitcoin ETF net assets fell to $77.58B, back to levels last seen right after Trump’s November 2024 election win
• Over $92.14M in long liquidations hit in 24 hours against just $27.13M on the short side

Bitcoin trades at $61,433 on June 10, holding above a support zone that briefly broke on June 5 and 6 as Fidelity Digital Assets flagged that price dipped under the 200-week SMA near $61,800, a level historically tied to forced selling events.

Bitcoin Daily Chart: RSI at 23 With Every EMA Pointing Down

The daily chart is about as bearish structurally as it gets. All four EMAs sit overhead in a bearish stack: 20 at $67,887, 50 at $71,984, 100 at $74,192, and 200 at $79,393. Price is channeling lower with no reclaimed level to point to.

The one number that stands out is RSI at 23.85. That is deeply oversold and matches the reading that produced the last bullish divergence in February 2026 before the bounce toward $84,000. History does not repeat on schedule, but a daily RSI this low tends to compress further downside.

• Resistance: $67,887 (20 EMA), $64,000 (channel top)
• Support: $61,800 (200-week SMA), $60,000 (round number floor)

Why Bitcoin ETF Outflows Tell the Real Story

Total net assets across US spot Bitcoin ETFs dropped to $77.58B on June 9, erasing every gain made since Trump won the election in November 2024. The ETFs peaked at $169.54B in October 2025. That is more than $90B in value gone despite the most favorable regulatory environment Bitcoin has ever operated in, with a strategic reserve established and the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act advancing in Washington.

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Cumulative net inflows have dropped nearly $9B from their peak. Analysts at Binance Research point to inflation-driven Fed hawkishness as the primary exit trigger. Former 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder adds that AI, SpaceX, and competing growth narratives are pulling capital away from crypto at exactly the wrong moment.

BTC Derivatives: Longs Are Still Getting Hit

Volume rose 1.83% to $72.18B while open interest edged down 0.15% to $45.31B. The long/short ratio of 0.9512 leans slightly bearish. Over 24 hours, $92.14M in long positions were liquidated versus $27.13M in shorts.

The last bounce was a short squeeze, not fresh buying. Over $500M in bearish bets were wiped in the move off the lows, but spot demand never followed. Without ETF inflows returning, rallies remain technically fragile.

Wednesday’s Inflation Print Is the Event That Decides the Next Move

A hot US inflation reading locks in the case for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh staying hawkish, which drains liquidity from non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Gold is already sliding below $4,200 an ounce in tandem, a rare correlation that signals macro selling rather than crypto-specific pressure.

Moreover, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.54% as broader risk assets sold off, with South Korea’s Kospi down 6.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures pointing lower. Bitcoin is currently trading tick-for-tick with equities, which weakens its macro hedge argument at precisely the moment it needs to prove otherwise.

Fidelity Digital Assets noted BTC has been in a death cross for 204 days, with price briefly slipping under the 200-week SMA on June 5 and 6. Every prior sustained break below that level coincided with forced selling events, the most notable being 2022. 

Bitcoin Price Prediction for June 11, 2026

• Upside: A hold above $61,800 and a cooler inflation print targets a relief move toward $64,000. RSI at 23 creates room for a sharp bounce if macro pressure eases.
• Downside: A daily close below $60,000 reopens the path to $56,000 with no meaningful support between the two levels.

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