- Democrats hold 93% odds of winning the House and 73% of the Senate on Kalshi.
- A Democratic Congress could affect Trump’s crypto agenda and the CLARITY Act.
- Bitcoin ETF flows, institutional demand, and economic conditions remain key BTC price drivers.
The Bitcoin price has historically witnessed several rallies in response to US President Donald Trump’s crypto-focused policies and speeches. But now, things seem to be changing as Democrats gain momentum ahead of the US midterm elections. Thus, investors remain cautious about whether a shift in congressional power could affect Bitcoin’s bullish narrative.
Democrats Gain Ground Ahead of US Midterm Elections
Reportedly, Democrats are gaining ground in prediction markets ahead of the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. According to Kalshi data, odds of Democrats taking control of both the House and the Senate are rising.
Odds of Senate Election; Source: Kalshi
Kalshi data reveals that Democrats currently hold a 93% chance of gaining control of the House. At the same time, there is a 73% chance for the Democrats of taking the Senate. This suggests that Republicans have a much lower chance of retaining control, with Kalshi placing their odds at just 6.3% for the House and 27% for the Senate.
Could a Democratic Victory Affect Bitcoin and Trump’s Policies?
Notably, the odds indicate that the traders are increasingly expecting a shift in congressional control. This has sparked concerns among crypto investors about whether this change could affect Trump’s influence on the Bitcoin price.
If Democrats gain control of both chambers, the Trump administration could face challenges in passing its proposed crypto policies. This could affect the progress of crypto-related legislation, including the much-awaited CLARITY Act.
However, it should be understood that the Kalshi data is just a projection and not the final result. The actual impact on the Bitcoin price will only be decided by the final outcome of the midterm elections and the position taken by individual lawmakers.
Trump’s Past Crypto Moves Triggered Major Bitcoin Price Rallies
Historically, the Bitcoin price has exhibited a strong response to crypto-related activities of Trump. During the month of November in 2024, when Trump became the President of America, BTC rose by about 7% and touched an all-time high of $75,060, due to investors’ hopes for a pro-crypto regime of the “crypto president.”
In January 2025, when he took office, the Bitcoin price hit another high of $109k. But the value dropped as soon as his initial executive orders did not include specific crypto measures. Another major event came in March when Trump proposed a US Crypto Strategic Reserve.
Subsequently, Trump took the initiative on several other crypto-based developments, including the launch of the TRUMP memecoin, the blockchain project World Liberty Financial, restructuring of regulatory agencies like the CFTC and SEC, and more. All of these developments had a major impact on the Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin Price Looks Beyond Trump’s Policies as Market Drivers Expand
Bitcoin’s market behavior may change as investors have started looking beyond Trump’s political announcements. While the president’s crypto-friendly stance influenced market sentiment previously, several other factors are now shaping the market. These include institutional demand, Bitcoin ETF inflows, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, inflation reports, and market liquidity. As of now, the BTC price is marked at $78,349, up 0.61% in a day.
This means that the Bitcoin price is not solely tied to developments in the White House. At the same time, it does not mean that Trump’s influence on crypto has completely disappeared. His decisions on crypto regulation, government policy, and the US economy could still affect the BTC price. A change in congressional control could also create uncertainty around proposed crypto legislation.
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Significantly, the outcome of the US midterm elections could bring changes to the crypto market’s political outlook. Investors will watch how the new administration sees crypto and how it will affect the Bitcoin price. The progress of the CLARITY Act will also be important. Any changes or delays in the crypto bill could affect the Bitcoin price and the broader market.
In addition, people will also check Bitcoin ETF inflows after the election. If institutional demand rises despite a change in the government, it could support the Bitcoin price. On the other hand, increasing outflows could push the price down.
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