- 58.8% of users think Bitcoin’s price will pump after the next halving event.
- The next Bitcoin halving will bring about increased scarcity in the eyes of investors.
- Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model projects increased scarcity, consistent with previous halvings.
The famous Twitter Bitcoin analyst with the online identity PlanB predicts that Bitcoin price will climb above $100,000 after the next halving event. The actual range estimate by PlanB is that Bitcoin price will be between $100,000 and $1,000,000 by 2025.
PlanB’s analysis and prediction came after a poll that he conducted on Twitter to gauge the Bitcoin community’s expectations for the upcoming halving event. From 24,831 poll participants, 58.8% expect the Bitcoin price to pump after the next halving.
Those who think the market has already priced in the 2024 Bitcoin halving were 11%, while 30.1% claimed not to know what the outcome would be.
PlanB’s analysis agreed with the popular votes on the conducted poll. He believes that the next Bitcoin halving will bring about increased scarcity in the eyes of investors. According to him, the 2024 halving will be his guidance for the next three years in the Bitcoin market.
To measure scarcity, PlanB deploys the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which currently stands at 110. He notes that Bitcoin’s S2F is at a similar level to what it was during the previous halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the result of which was significant bull runs that pushed Bitcoin price to new levels.
Bitcoin halving is an event that cuts Bitcoin mining rewards in half. It is part of the original algorithm of the Bitcoin protocol that counteracts inflation by checking scarcity. Bitcoin halving occurs after every four years. The first halving happened in 2012 when the mining reward slashed from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. In 2016, Bitcoin experienced a second halving, which reduced the mining reward to 6.25 BTC. The last halving happened in 2020, with the mining reward further reduced to 3.125 BTC. Bitcoin is preparing for its fourth halving event, which will happen in March 2024. It will reduce the mining reward to 1.5625 BTC. The halving process reduces the rate of introducing new Bitcoins into the network. Hence, the inflation control and scarcity check. Bitcoin halving will continue until the last of all 21 million created Bitcoins is mined. Users expect this to happen around the year 2140.
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