- Bitcoin ATH narratives have shifted repeatedly since December 2025, with some bulls now describing the current drawdown as a typical 50% correction.
- This may stem from a belief that the current cycle remains intact despite macroeconomic headwinds.
- Trader TedPillows questioned how long it would take for BTC bulls to realize they are wrong and no new ATH is coming soon.
On June 17, 2026, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, trader @TedPillows highlighted the importance of Kevin Warsh’s speech. He noted that any hawkish or dovish signals could influence risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). Ted highlighted how bullish narratives have shifted over recent months as market participants continued to anticipate a new Bitcoin all-time high (ATH).
Bitcoin Bulls Shift New ATH Narratives from Dec 2025 Through 2026
Bitcoin hit its all-time high of approximately $126,198 in early October 2025. It then entered a sharp correction, falling roughly 50% and trading between $60,000 and $65,000 by mid-June 2026. As months passed without a new high, bullish expectations increasingly centered on new catalysts.
In December 2025, bulls pointed to the Fed ending QT. January 2026 focused on gold peaking, while February was labeled a standard mid-cycle correction. March optimism tied to the end of the US-Iran tensions, and April awaited oil prices peaking. By May, expectations simply became “new ATH soon.” By June 2026, the narrative settled on the “usual 50% correction” with new highs still expected later in the year.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction May 2026: Can BTC Break The 200-Day EMA In May?
Why BTC Bulls Keep Shifting Goalposts
Some analysts argue that Bitcoin bulls continue to adjust ATH expectations because of confidence in post-halving cycle patterns. Institutional flows from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and steady on-chain accumulation reinforce the view that price stagnation reflects consolidation within a broader bullish structure.
Persistent macro uncertainty, including limited Fed easing, tighter liquidity conditions, and ongoing geopolitical risks, continues to delay expected breakout catalysts. As a result, attention has repeatedly shifted to new potential catalysts, with market participants remaining divided on whether Bitcoin’s correction represents a cycle top or a temporary pullback.
Outlook for Bitcoin as ATH Expectations Fade
TedPillows argued that a new ATH may not be imminent despite continued bullish expectations. According to CME FedWatch data, markets assign a 99% probability for the Fed to keep the rates unchanged in the 3.50% – 3.75% range. This may extend range-bound trading or deepen support tests, even as post-halving ATH cycles typically unfold over 12–18 months historically.
At press time, BTC trades at $65,755.08 with a market cap of $1.3T. Looking ahead, bulls cite institutional adoption and structural demand, with scenarios ranging from consolidation in the $60k–$90k range to potential new highs in 2026–2027 if inflows and liquidity improve.
Meanwhile, bears warn of deeper tests toward $50k–$55k amid weakening momentum and tighter liquidity conditions. The debate highlights the contrast between long-term bullish expectations and concerns about near-term liquidity conditions.
Related: Bitcoin Rebounds in April as Monthly Gains Signal Shift in 2026 Trend
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