- The U.S. CFTC has proposed expansive new rules to clarify allowed bets on prediction markets.
- CFTC plans clearer prediction market rules, allowing sports bets and curbing manipulation.
- Bernstein projects prediction market volumes to hit $240B in 2026 and $1T by 2030.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under President Donald J. Trump is proposing an expansive set of new rules on how to govern the booming prediction markets. The agency seeks to clarify allowed bets on prediction markets such as Kalshi and other platforms while gaining the power to block manipulative contracts.
CFTC Proposes New Rules for Prediction Markets
The CFTC is advancing new rules for prediction markets. The expansive set of new rules aims to provide clearer parameters for allowable bets on platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and other platforms while maintaining a broadly permissive stance.
The framework builds on an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking issued in March 2026, which sought public input on public interest determinations, manipulation risks, and cost-benefit analysis. Regulators are also considering additional retail investor protections. The proposal would prohibit bets on war, terrorism, assassinations, injuries, and certain granular sports wagers such as first-pitch gambling.
Why Trump Regulators Are Expanding Oversight
Under CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, the agency has shifted away from stricter Biden-era proposals that would have restricted political and sports event contracts. The agency now favors a more permissive approach that supports innovation and information aggregation in prediction markets while still addressing risks such as manipulation, insider trading, and misuse.
Meanwhile, expansion reflects rapid growth in prediction platforms offering contracts on elections, corporate earnings, and sports, filling a prior regulatory gap. Regulators aim to protect market integrity, prevent fraud, and enforce Commodity Exchange Act principles while avoiding overregulation that could limit innovation or slow the sector’s broader development.
Additionally, the new rules also reinforce the CFTC’s position in ongoing legal battles with states attempting to impose their own restrictions or bans, with the Trump administration emphasizing federal preemption to keep the U.S. competitive in emerging financial technologies.
What’s Next for the U.S. Prediction Markets and Crypto Regulation?
Impacts include sustained trading volume surges on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi, a CFTC-registered designated contract market, would benefit as federal preemption removes state-level obstacles constraining its growth. This strengthens the CFTC’s position in lawsuits against states such as New York and Illinois that seek to impose gambling restrictions or bans.
Furthermore, Bernstein analyst projects prediction market volumes will hit $240 billion in 2026, a 370% year-over-year increase, and surge to $1 trillion by 2030 at an 80% compound annual growth rate.
Looking ahead, the rules could support stronger retail investor protections and deeper integration with crypto markets. Bipartisan digital asset legislation expected in fall 2026 could further legitimize on-chain prediction tools, tokenized assets, and stablecoin settlements, positioning the U.S. as a leader in regulated prediction markets.
Related: Trump Backs CFTC Control Over Prediction Markets
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