- Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000, and its Ethereum forecast to $2,240.
- Policy delays and treasury-company selling risks added pressure to crypto prices.
- Citi’s recession scenario values Bitcoin at $53K and Ethereum at $1,094 over the next 12 months.
Citigroup reduced its 12-month forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum as fund withdrawals weakened the market’s institutional demand picture. The bank lowered its Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000, while its Ethereum projection fell to $2,240 from $3,175.
As per reports, the revisions followed negative ETF flows, bearish technical conditions, delayed United States legislation, and concerns about selling by digital asset treasury companies. Citi also cut its net ETF inflow assumption from $10 billion to zero, removing a pillar from its earlier outlook.
ETF Outflows Erode a Crucial Source of Crypto Demand
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $58,656, its lowest level since September 2024 and about 53% below October’s record of $126,198. Similarly, Ethereum stood at $1,573, marking its weakest level since April 2025 after months of sustained pressure across the crypto market.
The decline unfolded amid heightened volatility and growing investor attention toward major initial public offerings. Both assets also remained below their long-term moving averages, reinforcing the bearish conditions cited in Citi’s assessment.
Moreover, the bank identified ETF flows as an increasingly important price driver, although recent data showed regulated investment demand shifting into negative territory.
That weakness continued on June 30, when United States spot BTC ETFs posted combined net withdrawals of $222.6 million. At the same time, spot Ether ETFs registered another $27.6 million in outflows during the session.
Since these regulated products allow investors to gain crypto exposure without directly holding tokens, their flows have become a practical indicator of institutional and retail demand.
Policy Delays and Treasury Risks Deepen Citi’s Bear Case
Against that backdrop, Citi’s recession-based bear case valued Bitcoin at $53,000 and Ethereum at $1,094 over the next 12 months. The scenario assumed that ETF outflows would persist while broader macroeconomic conditions weakened.
The bank also linked subdued sentiment to slow progress on the United States digital asset market-structure legislation. Although the House passed the CLARITY Act in July 2025 by a 294–134 vote, the Senate had yet to complete its consideration of the legislation.
In addition, Citi cited the possibility of selling by digital asset treasury companies that accumulated large crypto holdings during the previous rally. Falling prices, tighter financing conditions, or shareholder pressure could push some firms to reduce their positions, thereby increasing available market supply.
At the same time, the downturn coincided with capital rotating toward artificial intelligence-related assets. Therefore, without renewed ETF demand or measurable legislative progress, Citi expects broader adoption to remain subdued as Bitcoin and Ethereum continue facing weaker institutional support.
Related: Peter Schiff Sparks Debate With Fresh $20K Bitcoin Crash Warning
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