Bitcoin could return 10% a year over the next 10 to 15 years, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. The firm’s forecast puts it ahead of stocks, gold and real estate, although its projected 55% annualized volatility means investors could face much wider price swings.
The October 20 report marks the first time in more than 30 years that JPMorgan has included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions.
Bitcoin Return Forecast Exceeds Traditional Assets
JPMorgan projects annual returns of 7.5% for US large-cap stocks, 8.2% for real estate investment trusts and 5.5% for gold. Bitcoin’s base-case forecast exceeds all three.
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The bank outlines three scenarios for Bitcoin: a 10% annual return in its base case, a 9.7% loss in its bearish scenario and a 17% gain in its bullish outlook. Its estimated arithmetic annual return reaches 20.9%, reflecting the range of potential outcomes. Bitcoin’s volatility also exceeds gold’s 17.2%.
JPMorgan Highlights Investment Risks
Despite its forecast, JPMorgan has not included Bitcoin in its standard portfolio allocations. Portfolio manager Sheena Shah and digital asset strategy head Dennis Cristallo described it as a “speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.”
Bitcoin lacks predictable cash flows, complicating traditional valuation methods. CEO Jamie Dimon previously called Bitcoin a “fraud” in 2017 and a “pet rock” in 2024. In 2025, JPMorgan said clients could buy Bitcoin through its services.
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