- Arthur Hayes bought over 1,939 ETH worth roughly $3.72M in OTC transactions on July 17, reversing a 6,000 ETH sale at a loss in late June
- ETH broke above its descending trendline from February but is pulling back toward the 50-day EMA as leveraged longs absorbed $84.93M in liquidations
- Analyst fly_welinkBTC argues ETH holds a core position in all three narratives likely to drive the next bull market: tokenized stocks, stablecoins, and AI
- A chip stock selloff sent Japan’s Nikkei down 5% on Friday and dragged ETH twice as hard as Bitcoin on the day
Ethereum trades at $1,827.95 on July 17, down 1.89%, giving back gains after pushing above the descending trendline that capped every recovery attempt since February. The pullback is arriving with open interest falling 5.99% and long liquidations hitting $84.93M in 24 hours, pointing to leveraged traders getting shaken out rather than sellers driving a trend reversal.
ETH Price Today: Trendline Break Meets First Real Test
The daily chart shows ETH breaking above the descending trendline that has defined the bear trend since February, with price now pulling back toward the 50-day EMA at $1,809.16 and 20-day EMA at $1,783.51. Those two levels form the immediate support cluster bulls need to hold for the breakout to remain valid. A close back below both would bring the trendline break into question.
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The Supertrend indicator at $1,670.43 remains bullish below price, the first trend-following signal to flip in ETH’s favor in months. The 100-day EMA at $1,940.26 is where the rally stalled, and that level remains the primary ceiling on any renewed push higher. The 200-day EMA at $2,209.58 sits well above as the longer-term target if momentum returns. A horizontal support band is visible on the chart near $1,500, marking the June floor that anchored the recovery.
ETH Support and Resistance Levels — July 17, 2026
- Support at $1,809.16 on the 50-day EMA and $1,783.51 on the 20-day
- Resistance at $1,940.26 on the 100-day EMA where the rally previously stalled
- Key floor at the $1,500 support zone from the June lows
- Extended resistance at $2,209.58 on the 200-day EMA
ETH Derivatives Data: Leveraged Longs Flushed, Not Trend Reversed
On-chain derivative data tells a more nuanced story than the headline price decline suggests. Volume climbed 3.68% to $43.09B while open interest fell 5.99% to $25.94B simultaneously — a combination that traders interpret as position closures rather than fresh bearish positioning. When open interest drops as price falls, existing longs are exiting, not new shorts piling in.
The liquidation data confirms this reading: long positions absorbed $84.93M in forced closures over 24 hours compared to just $12.77M for shorts. That 6.6:1 long-to-short liquidation ratio indicates an overleveraged long side getting washed out, not the kind of aggressive short-selling that typically accompanies genuine trend reversals.
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
| Top Trader Long/Short (Accounts) | 1.96 | Large players leaning heavily long |
| Top Trader Long/Short (Positions) | 1.44 | Still net long on position sizing |
| Retail Long/Short (24h) | 0.9384 | Slight short bias among smaller traders |
| Long Liquidations (24h) | $84.93M | Leveraged longs flushed out |
| Short Liquidations (24h) | $12.77M | Short sellers mostly unaffected |
The divergence between large and retail traders is notable: institutional-sized accounts on Binance maintain a 1.96 long/short ratio on accounts, while retail-sized traders are slightly net short. This “smart money long, retail short” split is often interpreted as a contrarian signal in favor of further upside.
Arthur Hayes Reverses ETH Position In Under Three Weeks
On-chain data tracked by Onchain Lens showed Arthur Hayes sending $1.25M USDC to Galaxy Digital and receiving 646 ETH back within minutes, followed by another $1.25M USDC to FalconX in what appeared to be a second OTC transaction.
A subsequent on-chain purchase of 1,293 ETH brought his single-day total above 1,939 ETH at roughly $3.72M combined. The accumulation reverses a position he exited in late June when he sold 6,000 ETH at an estimated $606,000 loss alongside exits from Worldcoin, Zcash, NEAR, and Hyperliquid.
Why Analysts See ETH Outperforming BTC in the Next Cycle?
Crypto analyst fly_welinkBTC has laid out a structural case for ETH outperformance that centers on its unique position across three macro narratives expected to drive the next bull market: tokenized real-world assets, stablecoin infrastructure, and AI-blockchain convergence.
The Three ETH Demand Narratives
| Narrative | ETH’s Position | Data Point |
| Tokenized Stocks / RWAs | Dominant chain | Hosts >35% of tokenized stock market |
| Stablecoins & Payments | Settlement layer | >50% of on-chain stablecoin supply |
| AI Agent Transactions | Infrastructure standard | ERC-8183 targets AI-to-AI settlement |
The recently launched ERC-8183 standard targets trusted transactions between autonomous AI agents operating on-chain, positioning Ethereum as the preferred settlement layer for machine-to-machine value transfer as AI agent networks scale toward real economic activity.
Bitcoin’s two primary demand drivers, spot ETF inflows and corporate treasury accumulation, have both slowed materially in contrast, leaving BTC without a clear new growth engine for the cycle ahead.
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The analyst’s argument is not that Bitcoin fails outright, but that Ethereum carries more active demand catalysts competing for the same pool of institutional capital.
Chip Stock Selloff Dragged ETH Down Twice As Hard As Bitcoin On Friday
A sharp selloff in Asian semiconductor stocks spilled into crypto on July 17, with Japan’s Nikkei dropping 5% in its worst session since March and Taiwan Semiconductor heading for its biggest single-day decline since April 2025.
ETH fell 4% to $1,850, twice the magnitude of Bitcoin’s 2% drop to $63,400, even after US spot Ether ETFs pulled in nearly $97M across the first three days of the week. Meanwhile, ETH remains the only major asset still green on the seven-day window, barely, while the Fear and Greed Index sits at 25 in extreme fear territory.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Upside and Downside Targets
- Upside case: ETH holds the 50-day EMA at $1,809.16, the trendline break is confirmed on a daily close above it, and Hayes-style accumulation draws further institutional interest toward the 100-day EMA at $1,940.26.
- Downside case: The 50-day and 20-day EMAs both fail, ETH slips back below the broken trendline, and the leveraged long flush extends toward the Supertrend support at $1,670.43 as profit-taking accelerates.
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