- Bitmine holds 4.29% of ETH supply and is buying 100,000 ETH weekly, putting its 5% accumulation target just six weeks away before purchases slow
- Mid-tier whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH have offloaded 3.43M ETH since October 2025, a 21.5% drop that creates a persistent supply overhang
- ETH Supertrend support holds at $2,138 but the CMF at -0.13 shows capital is still leaving, not entering
Ethereum trades at $2,281 on May 9, stuck inside a rising wedge on the daily chart as Bitmine chairman Tom Lee signals the firm’s historic ETH buying spree is weeks away from slowing, removing one of the market’s most consistent demand drivers.
Ethereum Daily Chart: Rising Wedge Meets a Stubborn Downtrend
The daily chart is at a crossroads. Since bottoming near $1,800 in February, ETH has been grinding higher inside a rising wedge, but the long-term descending trendline from the October 2025 peak near $4,800 continues to press down on price. The Supertrend indicator sits at $2,138, currently below price and technically bullish, but the Chaikin Money Flow at -0.13 tells a different story — capital is still leaving, not entering.
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Price has repeatedly tested the $2,300 ceiling over April and May without a clean daily close above it. The wedge is narrowing fast. A break in either direction is approaching, and the CMF reading suggests sellers still have the edge at current levels.
Key levels for May 9:
- Resistance: $2,300 wedge ceiling, $2,400 next structure, $2,600 descending trendline
- Support: $2,138 (Supertrend), $2,000 psychological, $1,800 February low
- CMF: -0.13, negative for most of 2026
ETH Derivatives: Longs Are Getting Punished
Volume fell 27.85% to $43.55B while open interest slipped 1.05% to $34.03B. The combination points to position exits, not aggressive new positioning. On Binance, the long/short ratio among retail accounts sits at 2.6456, heavily long-skewed, while top trader positions are nearly flat at 1.0033.
That retail long bias is a problem. Over the past 24 hours, $74.13M in longs were liquidated against just $4.49M in shorts. Bears are not getting squeezed here. Longs are. With retail piling long and top traders neutral, the path of least resistance favors another shake before any sustained move higher.
Whale Distribution Is the Overhang Nobody Is Talking About
On-chain analyst Ali Charts flagged a significant regime shift in mid-tier whale behavior. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH accumulated steadily from April 2025, peaking at 15.95M ETH by October 6. Since then, that cohort has reduced holdings to roughly 12.52M ETH, a 21.5% drawdown representing over 3.4M ETH hitting the market over seven months.
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That sustained distribution from wallets large enough to move price is a meaningful headwind. Absorbing that supply requires fresh institutional or retail demand, and right now neither is showing up convincingly in the flow data.
Bitmine Slowing Down Changes the ETH Demand Picture
Bitmine has been acquiring roughly 100,000 ETH per week and currently holds 4.29% of total supply, valued near $11.9B. At that pace, the firm hits its 5% target in approximately six weeks, after which Lee indicated buying would slow and focus would shift to staking income and a $4B share repurchase program.
About 85% of Bitmine’s holdings are already staked, generating over $300M annually. The firm is not a forced seller, but the removal of 100,000 ETH in weekly buy pressure is a structural demand shift the market will need to replace from elsewhere.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Upside and Downside for May 9
- Upside: A daily close above $2,300 with positive CMF would be the first real bullish confirmation since the wedge began. Target $2,400, then $2,600 where the descending trendline sits. Bitmine completing its accumulation and pivoting to staking could reframe ETH as a yield asset and attract a different buyer base.
- Downside: Wedge breakdown below $2,138 Supertrend support opens a fast move to $2,000. Sustained whale distribution with no offsetting demand and $74M in daily long liquidations make this the higher probability path near term.
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