- EUR/USD dropped to $1.1161 while DXY climbed 0.47% to 102.37 on euro weakness.
- Bitcoin held near $86,463, less than 1.1% below the $87,378 September high.
- Fed pricing showed a 79.5% chance of no October hike, up from 36% a week earlier.
The euro fell to its weakest level since May 2025, lifting the dollar while Bitcoin stayed near late-September resistance.
| EUR/USD | DXY | BTC PRICE | US 10-YEAR |
| $1.1161 | 102.37 | $86,463 | 5.26% |
France Fiscal Stress and Spain Politics Weigh on Euro
France remains the larger fiscal concern, with investors increasingly focused on its heavy debt burden and continued political gridlock. The French 10-year yield premium over German Bunds topped 150 basis points on Friday before ending last week near 140 basis points.
That widening reflected growing concern around French fiscal conditions. Meanwhile, Spain is adding a separate layer of political uncertainty to the euro backdrop. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election for November 29 after legislative setbacks.
Spain has also operated without a newly approved state budget since 2023. However, European Commission forecasts put its 2026 deficit at 2.4% of GDP and debt at 99.6%. Therefore, unlike France, Spain’s pressure on the euro comes mainly from political and budget uncertainty rather than sharply deteriorating sovereign finances.
BTC Tests $87,378 as Dollar and Yields Stay Firm
Against that backdrop, Bitcoin has not followed the euro lower. At press time, BTC traded around $86,463, less than 1.1% below the late-September high near $87,378. It also climbed to almost $86,950 before sellers forced a pullback, while the price remained above its 50-period moving average near $84,407.
Even after that retreat, nearby support remains clustered around $84,860, $84,313, and $83,934. However, buyers have yet to confirm a breakout above the September peak. BTC has made two recent pushes toward the $87,000-$87,400 zone, but neither move has cleared $87,378.
Market focus: A sustained close above $87,378 would confirm a breakout. Otherwise, another rejection would keep the $84,000 region in focus as nearby support.
Fed Hold Odds Rise as 10-Year Yield Stays Near 5.26%
That resistance test comes as U.S. bond yields remain elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.26%, although it remains near last week’s 24-year high. Essentially, elevated yields support U.S. dollar demand and tighten financial conditions for risk assets.
However, softer September employment data reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve increase in October. CME pricing showed a 79.5% probability of no change, up from 36% one week earlier. Markets still expect another increase in December, keeping policy expectations restrictive.
As a result, EUR/USD weakened while DXY strengthened and Treasury yields stayed elevated. Even so, BTC remained close to its September high, highlighting its relative resilience.
Levels That Decide the Breakout
| LEVEL | ROLE |
|---|---|
| $87,378 | Late-September high and breakout threshold |
| $87,000-$87,400 | Recent resistance zone |
| $84,860 | Near-term support |
| $84,407 | 50-period moving average |
| $83,934 | Lower nearby support |
Breakout Case
A sustained close above $87,378 would confirm buyers cleared the late-September high despite the stronger dollar.
Failure Case
Another rejection around $87,378 would keep Bitcoin below resistance and return attention toward support around $84,000
Bottom Line
Bitcoin is holding up against the stronger dollar, with BTC remaining within 1.1% of its recent high. However, $87,378 still separates short-term resilience from a confirmed breakout.
Market FAQs
The euro weakened as French fiscal concerns combined with renewed political uncertainty in Spain.
In turn, DXY gained 0.47%, helped by the euro’s 57.6% weighting in the index.
Yes. Despite the stronger dollar, Bitcoin remained resilient, with BTC trading less than 1.1% below its late-September high.
For breakout confirmation, BTC would need a sustained close above approximately $87,378, which marks the recent peak.
Fed pricing showed a 79.5% probability of no October change, compared with 36% one week earlier.
Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction October 2026: BTC Eyes $90,000 in October as Fed Hike Odds Slide Below 50%
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