- Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer says Bitcoin may already be in an accumulation zone now.
- Bitcoin power law support line sits at $56,488, below the current $62,685 price.
- Fidelity flags a possible final Bitcoin drop below $57,000 before full recovery.
Bitcoin is sitting at what Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, describes as a potentially important support level, with the power law trendline model pointing to a possible final pullback before any sustained recovery.
Where Bitcoin Stands Right Now
At around $62,685, Bitcoin is approaching its power law support line, a long-term mathematical model that traces the lower boundary of Bitcoin’s historical price behaviour across multiple cycles. Timmer said on X that at $60,000, Bitcoin gets ever closer to that support line, and that in his view, the asset may already be in an accumulation zone.
The chart, published by Fidelity shows Bitcoin’s entire price history overlaid against the power law trendline, support line, and resistance line alongside the 52-week Z-score of the BTC to gold ratio.
Accumulation Zone Argument
The chart highlights two previous accumulation zones, periods where Bitcoin sat significantly below its power law trendline and where buying at those levels produced substantial long-term returns. The current reading places Bitcoin in a similar position relative to the model.
Fidelity’s analysis says Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase despite recent volatility, and that the asset’s behaviour is consistent with prior bottoming patterns. The BTC versus power law indicator shown in pink and blue beneath the price chart is sitting near the deeply negative readings that historically preceded major recoveries.
The $56,500 Risk
The firm also flagged a potential final pullback below $57,000 as possible before the accumulation phase concludes. The chart marks $56,488 as the current power law support line level, sitting just below the $62,685 price as of the data date.
That gap between where Bitcoin is trading and where the floor sits leaves room for one more leg lower before the model’s support kicks in with conviction.
Previous cycles show similar dynamics. In 2022, Bitcoin touched its accumulation zone near $15,000 before recovering. In 2018, the accumulation zone was around $2,521 before the next cycle began. Each time the power law support was held, what followed was a multi-year bull run.
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