XRP Weekly Price Prediction: Options Open Interest Surges 24x As Traders Hedge Around The $1 Floor

• XRP inflows to Binance hit an all-time low with a 3.6M monthly average, signaling seller exhaustion per analyst Darkfost
• Options open interest surged nearly 24x to $58.39M as volume jumped 197%, pointing to hedging rather than directional conviction
• Longs absorbed $2.65M of the $2.70M in total liquidations over 24 hours as XRP consolidates above the $1.00 floor

XRP trades at $1.0613 on August 1, flat on the session, holding above the $1.00 floor that sellers failed to break in June as the first on-chain signal of genuine seller exhaustion arrives alongside an options market suddenly alive with activity.

XRP Binance Inflows Just Hit Their Lowest Level Ever

The exchange inflow chart tells a clear story. From the August 2025 peak when XRP was trading near $3.25 and inflows regularly exceeded 300M tokens per month, Binance inflows have fallen steadily alongside price. By July 2026, the monthly average has dropped to approximately 3.6M XRP, an all-time low across the entire dataset.

Analyst Darkfost described the dynamic precisely: following the distribution episode that drove XRP from $3.66 down 72%, sellers are now exhausted. The absence of large inflows to Binance reflects the absence of strong selling intent among holders. That does not guarantee a recovery on its own. What Darkfost flagged as the missing piece is a genuine rebound in demand to follow the lull on the sell side, a condition that appears necessary before a sustainable trend can form. The floor above $1.00 looks more credible now than at any point during the correction, but a floor and a launch pad are two different things.

Funding Rates Show A Market That Is Not Overextended

The funding rate chart shows XRP oscillating between mildly positive and mildly negative readings through July, with no sustained positive spike that would indicate overleveraged long positioning. 

During XRP’s peak near $3.66, funding rates were consistently elevated, reflecting the leveraged frenzy that accompanied the rally. Today’s near-zero funding environment is the opposite condition, reflecting a market where futures traders are not paying a premium to hold long positions. That is a healthier base than the over-leveraged state that preceded the correction.

Options Traders Are Active But Futures Traders Are Stepping Back

24-hour volume fell 13.25% to $1.26B and open interest slipped 1% to $2.42B, a far cry from the $10B open interest peak when XRP was near $3.66. The leveraged frenzy that accompanied the rally has fully unwound. Retail traders on Binance and OKX are leaning long with ratios of 2.75 and 3.22 respectively, but the overall long/short ratio near 0.97 shows the market is broadly balanced.

Meanwhile, Volume surged 197% and options open interest jumped nearly 24x to $58.39M. That level of options activity without a corresponding surge in futures open interest points to traders hedging existing positions or speculating on a directional move through options rather than taking outright leveraged exposure in perpetuals. Liquidations over 24 hours confirm longs are still taking the pain: $2.65M of the $2.70M total was long liquidations, meaning buyers who entered with leverage are being washed out as XRP consolidates in the $1.06 to $1.10 range.

XRP Is Holding Below The 20-Day EMA With The Bull Market Support Band Far Above

The daily chart shows XRP compressing below the 20-day EMA at $1.0893 with the Bull Market Support Band sitting between $1.2779 and $1.3132, well above current price. Price has been below the Bull Market Support Band since May, confirming the bear market structure on the higher timeframe. The 50-day EMA at $1.1238, 100-day at $1.2074, and 200-day at $1.4035 all slope downward above, with the band itself declining at a pace that keeps the gap to current price roughly constant.

A descending dashed trendline from the June lows continues to slope below current price, marking the lower boundary of the range. The $1.00 round number remains the key floor. Reclaiming the 20-day EMA at $1.0893 is the first step, followed by the 50-day at $1.1238 as the week’s primary target for bulls.

What Are The Key Support And Resistance Levels For XRP This Week?

Resistance

1. $1.09 — 20-day EMA, immediate ceiling
2. $1.12 — 50-day EMA, week’s primary bull target
3. $1.21 — 100-day EMA
4. $1.29 — Bull Market Support Band lower boundary

Support

1. $1.06 — Today’s session low
2. $1 — Round number and June low, critical floor
3. No established support below $1.00

XRP Week 1 August 2026: Upside and Downside Targets

• Upside case: Seller exhaustion at all-time low Binance inflows transitions into fresh demand, XRP reclaims the 20-day EMA at $1.0893, options activity converts from hedging into directional buying, and CLARITY Act developments in the days after the August 8 recess deadline provide a catalyst toward the 50-day EMA at $1.1238.
• Downside case: Demand fails to follow the seller exhaustion, the $1.00 floor breaks on a daily close, long liquidations accelerate as the descending trendline continues to drag price lower, and XRP enters uncharted territory below $1.00 with no technical support to reference.