Grayscale Signals Bitcoin May Have Found Its Long-Term Bottom

Bitcoin may have already reached a long-term bottom, according to Grayscale, as this week’s rebound raises questions about whether the cryptocurrency will suffer another major decline in 2026.

The asset manager pointed to historical cycles and Bitcoin’s smaller drawdown from its record high. Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its cycle peak, compared with declines of roughly 80% during previous market bottoms.

A sustained rebound could signal that investors are returning to accumulation, Grayscale said. Macro conditions, liquidity and investor sentiment could still determine whether the recovery holds.

Related: Bitcoin Eyes $100K After Shallow Pullback as Institutional Demand Returns 

Bitcoin Tests Key Technical Level

Bitcoin traded near $77,282 on Aug. 22, slightly above its 50-week moving average of about $77,234, according to TradingView data on the weekly timeframe. 

Galaxy Research found that reclaiming the level has often supported lasting recoveries.

The study covered six completed bear markets since 2011. Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week average 13 times, with 11 of those moves avoiding a later weekly closing low.

Regulation Could Boost Major Networks

Grayscale said proposed SEC rules for crypto fundraising could benefit Ethereum, Solana and BNB Chain by making token issuance easier and attracting more investors onchain.

Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s managing director of research, said the proposed “Reg Crypto” rules could encourage token-based fundraising. Greater blockchain activity could boost demand for native assets such as Ether, Solana and BNB.

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