- Polymarket discussed lifting its US ban with CFTC officials in recent weeks.
- Polymarket settled with CFTC in 2022, paying $1.4 million for offering unlicensed contracts.
- Talks involve merging the main exchange blockchain technology with the US-regulated platform.
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, is in active discussions with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) about lifting a self-imposed ban that has kept American traders off its main international exchange since 2022. The conversations have taken place over recent weeks and, if successful, would represent the most significant expansion of regulated prediction market access in the United States to date.
However, the CFTC itself is operating in unusual circumstances. The agency can have up to five commissioners, but currently has only one, chair Michael Selig, raising questions about the concentration of decision-making power at a moment when prediction market regulation is particularly active.
Bloomberg reported the talks, citing people familiar with the discussions who were not authorized to speak publicly.
How It Got Here
Polymarket’s history with US regulators is complicated. In 2022, the CFTC took enforcement action against the platform for allegedly offering unlicensed binary options contracts. Polymarket settled, paid a $1.4 million fine, shut down its non-compliant markets, and agreed to block American users from its platform on an ongoing basis.
The regulatory environment has since shifted. The Justice Department and the CFTC dropped a separate investigation into Polymarket last year, clearing one of the most significant clouds hanging over the company’s US ambitions.
In the meantime, Polymarket acquired derivatives exchange QCEX for $112 million and received CFTC approval in November to operate it as a regulated Designated Contract Market. The US-specific venue has not yet fully launched, leaving American traders effectively locked out of the platform’s most liquid markets.
What the Talks Involve
According to reports, the discussions go beyond flipping a switch on the existing US ban. Polymarket has raised the possibility of merging its main international exchange’s operations and blockchain-based technology with the domestic exchange’s regulatory licenses, and running the combined entity on the blockchain-based platform.
That structure would unify Polymarket’s liquidity rather than splitting American flow onto a separate, less liquid parallel platform. The international exchange is where the deepest markets in political events, elections, and major global outcomes have historically operated.
Any change would require a formal commission vote at the CFTC.
Related: Kalshi Calls Out Polymarket Over “Misleading” Volume Claims
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