- Kalshi disputes Polymarket’s volume claims, citing major gaps in reported trading data.
- Structural differences between the platforms make direct comparisons difficult, analysts say.
- Concerns over speculation and possible wash trading raise questions about data quality.
The head of the prediction market Kalshi’s crypto division, John Wang, has questioned trading data from Polymarket, raising concerns about volume accuracy. The dispute follows recent comparisons shared by Spencer Bogart and observations from Nick Devor.
Volume Dispute Emerges
In a post on X, Wang said Kalshi recorded about $13 billion in trading volume in March, compared with $10 billion on Polymarket. He disputed earlier claims that both platforms processed about $12 billion each, arguing the figures misrepresented actual activity.
For context, Bogart had earlier presented both platforms as nearly equal in total volume but noted key differences. His analysis suggested the gap widens when sports markets are excluded.
According to that view, Polymarket handled about $7.5 billion in non-sports trades, while Kalshi recorded about $1.6 billion.
“Unfair Comparison”
Meanwhile, Wang says the comparison isn’t fair because the two platforms work differently. He argues Kalshi should be compared only to Polymarket’s U.S. version, which is mostly focused on sports, since that’s closer to how Kalshi operates.
Notably, Kalshi’s trading is mostly in sports, while Polymarket includes a wider mix like politics, economics, and crypto events. Because of these differences, experts say it’s hard to make a direct, apples-to-apples comparison of their trading volumes.
In further defense of Kalshi, Wang raised a serious question about the composition of Polymarket’s trading activity. He pointed out that war-related contracts make up a large share of its political markets, which Kalshi doesn’t offer. Accordingly, he stressed the numbers aren’t directly comparable.
He also raised concerns about possible wash trading, in which the same trader buys and sells to inflate trading volume. Wang suggested this could be happening in some of Polymarket’s busiest markets, though there’s no independent proof.
More broadly, experts note that wash trading has been an issue on some crypto-based platforms, since open systems can make it harder to track and prevent.
Speculative Activity Raises Questions
Separately, Devor made a clear comparison between the platforms. In a post on X, Devor said trading activity on Polymarket is mostly driven by speculation rather than realistic forecasting.
Specifically, he claimed about 70% of trades go toward candidates with less than a 1% chance of winning the U.S. presidential election. Traders are also betting heavily on unlikely figures such as LeBron James and Kim Kardashian, as well as ineligible individuals like Elon Musk, instead of mainstream politicians.
By contrast, he said Kalshi focuses more on leading, realistic contenders, making it behave more like a traditional forecasting market.
Related: Kalshi and Polymarket Face Ban in Brazil’s Prediction Markets Crackdown
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