- Revised CLARITY Act faces falling odds ahead of key September 15 Senate vote.
- DeFi rules clarified, but ethics and stablecoin issues still divide lawmakers.
- Polymarket odds drop to 18% as delays and political friction stall momentum.
Senate Republicans released a revised, 630-page version of the CLARITY Act on Thursday, days ahead of a critical September 15 cloture vote. However, betting markets have grown less confident that the bill will pass this year.
What’s New in the Text
Senator Cynthia Lummis, who is a vocal supporter, said the update reflects “bipartisan hard work over August.” The text specifies when “decentralized-in-name-only” DeFi protocols must register with the CFTC, and limits DeFi provisions to spot and cash transactions in response to concerns about prediction markets.
Lummis said the text incorporates more than 100 changes requested by Democrats, along with added clarity for credit unions. Bernie Moreno, John Kennedy, Tim Scott, and Majority Leader John Thune have led the push, backed by a broad industry coalition (Coinbase, Kraken, Grayscale, over 200 organizations)
Missing Piece: Ethics
Before the August recess, Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego submitted a bipartisan ethics counterproposal to the White House. The framework would bar federal officials and judges from profiting off digital assets and let state attorneys general sue the DOJ to enforce it, provisions the White House and some Republicans have resisted.
However, on the opposing side, Senator Elizabeth Warren remains a critic, having filed 44 amendments and called the bill a threat to the economy, joined by Senators Chris Murphy, Chris Van Hollen, and Cory Booker
A vertical integration provision remains contested between Democrats and crypto exchanges. Senators Jerry Moran and Josh Hawley have said they may vote no over stablecoin rewards provisions banking groups argue could pull deposits from community banks. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto’s position on the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act remains unclear.
What Prediction Markets Are Saying
On Polymarket, odds the CLARITY Act bill becomes law in 2026 have collapsed from roughly 73% in mid-May to about 18% now. The May peak followed the Senate Banking Committee advancing the bill 15-9, with a timeline once targeting a July 4 signing.
That deadline passed without a floor vote amid the same disputes still unresolved today, and odds slid further by July. Confidence dropped again in August after Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged the Senate lacked calendar space for a vote before recess, even after a cloture motion was filed August 8.
Beyond the Senate
Even Senate passage wouldn’t finish the job. The House would still need to approve the Senate’s version, and with House leaders canceling the chamber’s final September voting weeks, any House action appears likely to slip into a lame-duck session in November.
Related: Senate Republicans Release Revised Clarity Act Ahead of Vote
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