- Hyperliquid’s SPCX perpetual contract rebounded to the $176-$183 range.
- IG derivatives priced SpaceX at $2.4T, a 35% premium to its IPO valuation.
- Polymarket traders currently assign a 78% chance that SpaceX breaks $2T valuation.
Sentiment around SpaceX’s market debut has turned sharply bullish again. After weeks of subdued expectations, traders in crypto derivatives and traditional shadow markets are once again betting on Elon Musk’s space company.
This change comes just hours before SpaceX begins trading at its fixed IPO price of $135 per share later today.
Hyperliquid Traders Reverse Course
Much of the early price discovery has taken place on Hyperliquid through SPCX, a cash-settled perpetual contract tied to SpaceX’s expected valuation.
The contract does not provide ownership of SpaceX shares or access to IPO allocations. Instead, it allows traders to speculate on where the stock could trade once public markets open.
SPCX traded as high as $216 in May and briefly touched $230 before losing momentum. By midweek, the contract had fallen to around $153 and traded near $157, indicating that traders were scaling back expectations for a huge first-day surge.
This trend, however, reversed ahead of the debut. The contract climbed back to the $176-$183 range on Friday morning. At those levels, traders are effectively pricing SpaceX at a premium of roughly 30% to 36% above its $135 IPO price.
Trading activity has also accelerated. Open interest reached approximately $567 million while daily futures volume exceeded $915 million, showing strong participation ahead of the listing.
Shadow Markets Point to a $2 Trillion-Plus Company
The bullish outlook is not limited to crypto markets. Derivatives tracked by IG International implied a SpaceX valuation of roughly $2.4 trillion before trading began. That figure is more than 35% above the $1.77 trillion valuation implied by the IPO price.
Prediction markets are telling a similar story. On Polymarket, traders assigned a 78% probability that SpaceX will finish its first day of trading with a market value above $2 trillion.
These markets suggest investors continue to expect a strong opening despite concerns over the company’s already massive valuation.
Binance Opens Access to SPCX Trading
As reported earlier, Binance Stocks also launched support for SpaceX stock token trading through SPCX.
The exchange will begin accepting limit orders at 09:05 UTC on June 12. Only limit orders are available during the opening session, while market orders remain disabled until official trading begins.
Binance warned that trading may not start immediately after the market opens. Like many high-profile Nasdaq IPOs, SpaceX could spend several hours in price discovery before the opening cross determines the first public trading price.
Related: SpaceX IPO Is Draining Capital From Crypto, Has Bitcoin Lost?
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