- A Polymarket trader lost about $500K after a disputed resolution on a Strategy Bitcoin sale market.
- Strategy’s filing confirmed a 32 BTC sale before May 31, supporting a YES outcome.
- Polymarket ruled that confirmation had to exist before the deadline, not emerge afterward.
Polymarket trader willo2 has accused the prediction market platform of unfairly resolving a market about whether MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin before May 31. He claims the decision cost him roughly $500,000.
The trader alleged that Polymarket changed its interpretation of the market rules after Strategy disclosed a Bitcoin sale. According to him, the move allowed the market to resolve against traders who had bet that a sale occurred.
Strategy’s Confirmed Bitcoin Sale
According to willo2, he was the largest holder of YES shares in Polymarket’s “MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st” market.
The market rules state that it will resolve to YES if Strategy sells any Bitcoin before 11:59 PM ET on May 31. Resolution sources included company disclosures, on-chain data, and a consensus of credible reporting.
willo2 said he began buying YES positions after noticing that Strategy transferred about $30 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime. After reviewing historical wallet activity and transfer patterns, he concluded the company had likely sold Bitcoin.
He initially invested around $5,000 before significantly increasing his position.
Market Remained Open After Deadline
The main part of the dispute is the timing of Strategy’s disclosure. willo2 noted that the market remained open on June 1 while traders waited for Strategy’s regular Monday 8-K filing. When the filing was released, it confirmed that the company had sold 32 BTC. The sale marked Strategy’s first Bitcoin disposal in more than three years.
Following the disclosure, the market price climbed to around 80 cents as confidence grew among traders that the market would resolve in favor of YES holders.
willo2 argued that the rules focused on whether a sale occurred before May 31, not when proof of that sale became public.
“MicroStrategy sold BTC before May 31st,” he wrote, arguing that the filing provided definitive evidence of the transaction.
Polymarket Issues Clarification
According to screenshots shared by Willo2, Polymarket later clarified its interpretation of the rules.
The platform stated that no information from Strategy, on-chain data, or credible reporting had confirmed a Bitcoin sale within the market’s specified timeframe. As a result, confirmation that emerged after the deadline would not qualify for a YES resolution.
willo2 argued that this requirement was never stated in the original rules. He said that if confirmation had to occur before the deadline, Polymarket should have closed or suspended the market before the filing became public.
Instead, the market remained active after the disclosure. This allowed traders to continue buying and selling shares before the final resolution decision.
Other Traders Echo Concerns
Another X user, Woukie, said he held YES positions as well and described the outcome as “scammy”.
He argued that most participants expected confirmation of any Strategy Bitcoin sale to come through the company’s routine Monday 8-K filing. If post-deadline confirmation was not intended to count, he said the market should have been closed earlier.
willo2 agreed. He claimed Polymarket intentionally kept the market open after the deadline and only clarified its interpretation after official confirmation had been released.
Allegations of Insider Advantage
willo2 also accused Polymarket of creating conditions that favored experienced traders or insiders. He claimed the platform waited until after the filing became public before issuing its clarification. According to him, this allowed large positions to be taken against traders expecting a YES resolution.
The trader described the decision as a form of insider abuse and said it had damaged his trust in the platform. As of press time, Polymarket and its CEO, Shayne Coplan, had not publicly responded to the allegations.
Hyperliquid to “Fix It”
Commenting on the post, analyst Alex Hunter said Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 is designed to fix issues like this. He noted that there have been many similar disputes on Polymarket.
willo2 responded positively, expressing excitement to trade on Hyperliquid’s prediction markets when they launch.
Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy sells 32 BTC for $2.5M as MSTR falls 7%
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