- The Kobeissi Letter says 21 of the past 30 payroll reports received downward revisions.
- May and June payroll estimates lost 103,000 jobs through official revisions.
- Crypto markets track labor data through Fed policy, Treasury yields, and dollar moves.
The Kobeissi Letter reports that US payroll figures received downward revisions in 21 of the past 30 months. Its calculation removes 1.05 million jobs from earlier estimates, averaging 35,067 jobs monthly. The pattern places attention on the reliability and direction of preliminary labor data. The chart covers monthly revisions rather than the separate annual benchmark process. It also records both positive and negative adjustments.
Official figures add context to that pattern. July payrolls fell by 23,000, while May and June lost 103,000 jobs through revisions. Labor data now feeds directly into interest-rate pricing, Treasury yields, the dollar, and crypto market positioning. The report also kept unemployment at 4.1%, while labor participation slipped to 61.4%.
US Jobs Revisions Build Across 30 Months
The chart shared on X contains more red bars than green bars across the measured period. Red bars represent negative payroll revisions, while green bars represent upward changes. Several downward readings exceed 50,000 jobs, and one 2025 bar drops beyond 250,000. The bars compare initial payroll readings with later published estimates for the same months.
Kobeissi Letter calculates a combined reduction of 1.05 million jobs across those 30 monthly reports. The figure measures changes to earlier estimates, not layoffs during one month. June and May produced a combined 103,000-job cut, the largest two-month downward adjustment since July 2025. May received two cuts, moving from 172,000 initially to 129,000 and then 63,000.
May and June Lose 103,000 Reported Jobs
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut May payroll growth by 66,000, from 129,000 to 63,000. It also reduced June growth by 37,000, from 57,000 to 20,000. Those changes produced the combined 103,000 reduction cited in the chart.
July then recorded a 23,000 payroll decline, compared with a 34,000 average monthly gain during the previous year. Local government education lost 50,000 positions, and retail trade lost 19,000. Health care added 22,000 jobs, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Labor force participation stood at 61.4%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.2% from a year earlier.
Why Payroll Estimates Change After Release
Additionally, monthly revisions form part of the payroll survey process. BLS updates estimates after businesses and government agencies submit more reports. The agency also recalculates seasonal factors, which can change earlier monthly totals after the initial publication. The CES program surveys about 119,000 employers, covering approximately 622,000 individual worksites.
BLS will publish its preliminary annual benchmark revision on August 28. That process compares survey estimates with broader unemployment-insurance tax records from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. A separate February benchmark cut the March 2025 payroll level by 862,000 jobs. The March adjustment equaled 0.5% of payroll employment for that month.
How Weaker US Jobs Data Affects Crypto
The Federal Reserve uses employment and inflation data when setting monetary policy under its dual mandate. After the July report, Treasury yields and the dollar declined, while markets reduced September rate-hike expectations. Those moves changed financial conditions across stocks, bonds, gold, and digital assets.
According to BIS studies, tightening US monetary policy has resulted in crypto price falls and decreases in stablecoin market capitalization. Expectations of falling rates can mitigate this effect on Bitcoin and other alt coins. Greater labor market weakness can have the opposite effect, prompting investors to de-risk and de-leverage.
Payroll revisions do not in themselves dictate a crypto price. Other factors like inflation, the Fed, ETF flows, leverage, and dollar liquidity weigh on daily trading too. The market will next get July inflation data on August 12 and the final revision on August 28. September payroll numbers follow.
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