- Bitcoin closed May at $73,568, down sharply from its all-time high in October 2025.
- PlanB says over 50% probability Bitcoin drops below the 200-week moving average at $61,000.
- Analyst Astronomer views the current Bitcoin range as a potential bottom formation zone.
Bitcoin ended May at $73,568, down sharply from highs above $97,000 earlier this year and well below its all-time peak of $126,198 reached in October 2025. The token is stuck in a tight range with $74,200 acting as resistance and $72,700 holding as support. Neither side has broken yet, but the compression is building toward a decisive move.
ETF outflows hit $2.3 billion in May, and whales sold over 6,000 BTC during the month. The market is now evenly split on whether February’s $60,000 low was the bottom or just a waypoint in a deeper decline.
The Bear Case
PlanB, whose stock-to-flow model calls for multiple Bitcoin cycles, said the data does not yet show bottom formation.
“There is a greater than 50% probability that we go lower, below the 200-week moving average at $61,000 or the realized price at $53,000,” he said after the monthly close.
Another analyst, Crypto Rover, flagged a textbook bearish flag pattern on the daily chart, describing it as one of the most reliable continuation signals in technical analysis. The pattern mirrors the structure that preceded the drop from $90,000 earlier this year. Benjamin Cowen, a crypto analyst, also offered a bearish view in sequence. His base case is a short-term tag of $70,000 followed by a small bounce before ultimately revisiting February’s low.
The Bull Case
Not everyone sees the same chart. Analyst Astronomer holds a bullish bias across weekly and daily timeframes, describing the current zone as a bottom formation region. His critical level is $74,200.
Team LAMBO said the weekly candle close was neither clearly bullish nor clearly bearish, with Bitcoin still holding its demand zone and retesting the double-bottom breakout. A weekly close above $75,600 would be the bullish confirmation signal.
The analyst also flagged that a peace deal announcement could be the macro catalyst that breaks the range higher.
The Levels That Decide Everything
Trader Daan Crypto mapped the immediate range clearly. $74,200 is resistance. $72,700 is support. Both sides have massive liquidity building against them with long positions concentrated below $73,000 and short positions stacking above $74,000.
The Macro Overhang
The price structure does not exist in isolation. US-Iran negotiations remain unresolved. ETF outflows reflect institutional caution rather than conviction buying.
Retail participation remains at multi-year lows. Until the geopolitical picture clarifies or the CLARITY Act provides a definitive regulatory catalyst, Bitcoin appears anchored to the $72,700 to $74,200 range with heavy consequences on either side of a breakout.
Related: Bitcoin Traders Watch $75K CME Gap as Support Holds Near $73K
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