Will SpaceX Hold Its $2.9 Trillion Valuation or Face a Post-IPO Reversal?

• SPCXUSDT ranked second among Binance products by trading volume on June 13.
• The contract remained among the exchange’s top three by June 16 as SpaceX shares climbed more than 60% above their $135 IPO price.
• Limited public supply and future lockup expirations could bring sharper volatility.

SpaceX has moved from a record-setting market debut to one of the most heavily traded assets across both stock and crypto-linked derivatives markets. Its shares climbed above $220 in overnight trading, placing the company’s market value close to $2.9 trillion only days after its Nasdaq listing.

That rally carried SpaceX past Amazon and briefly placed it near Microsoft in the global corporate rankings. Its valuation also moved well above Bitcoin’s market capitalization, which stood near $1.3 trillion.

SPCX Futures Remain Among Binance Leaders

Demand has extended beyond conventional stock exchanges. Binance’s SPCXUSDT perpetual contract recorded more than $5.6 billion in rolling 24-hour volume on June 13, making it the platform’s second-most traded product at the time.

By June 16, the contract remained among Binance’s top three. The shared ranking placed Ethereum perpetual futures first with $11.63 billion, followed by Bitcoin at $10.32 billion and SPCX at $3.59 billion.

Notably, the contract tracks SpaceX shares but does not represent direct ownership in the company. Perpetual futures allow traders to gain leveraged price exposure without purchasing the underlying stock.

CoinGlass data later showed SPCX near $209.51, with the chart recording a rapid intraday rise from around $161. Price moved above $190, consolidated through much of the session, then climbed toward $210 late in trading.

Related: SpaceX Could Reach $50 Trillion Valuation in Five Years, Investor Says 

Record IPO Fuels Valuation Expansion

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share. A rise above $220 represented a gain of roughly 63% from that level and valued the company near $2.9 trillion.

The offering initially targeted $75 billion. After underwriters exercised their overallotment option, total proceeds reportedly reached $85.7 billion, making it the largest initial public offering on record.

Meanwhile, SpaceX’s market value overtook Amazon and approached Microsoft. The move also lifted Elon Musk’s estimated wealth above $1.3 trillion, supported by his ownership interests in SpaceX and Tesla.

Heavy derivatives activity shows that traders are actively positioning around the post-IPO rally. However, futures volume measures turnover rather than lasting demand, as the same contracts can change hands repeatedly throughout a session.

Related: SpaceX Surges 63% to Above $220 in Overnight Trading, Hits $2.9T Valuation 

Limited Float Creates the Next Market Test

Only a small portion of SpaceX shares entered public trading through the IPO. That restricted supply has contributed to sharp price movements as buyers compete for available stock.

More shares may reach the market after employee and early investor lockup periods begin expiring. Stephanie Aliaga of JPMorgan Asset Management identified the six months after listing as a possible point of increased volatility.

Additional supply could improve liquidity, though it may also create selling pressure as early holders gain the ability to realize profits. Passive index inclusion could offset part of that supply by generating demand from funds that track major benchmarks.

SpaceX’s next valuation test will therefore depend on whether institutional buying, index demand, and business growth can absorb a larger public float after the initial IPO scarcity fades.