Will the CLARITY Act Pass This Thursday? What We Know So Far

• Eleanor Terrett said the CLARITY Act heads to the Senate Banking markup on Thursday.
• Democratic support remains uncertain, with ethics concerns tied to Trump family crypto holdings.
• Polymarket traders now give the CLARITY Act a 73% chance of becoming law in 2026.

The CLARITY Act faces its next major test this Thursday as the Senate Banking Committee prepares to mark up the crypto market structure bill. Eleanor Terrett said last-minute preparations and objections are underway, with one question still hanging over the vote: “Will Democrats support it?”

The bill can move out of committee with Republican support, but its path through the full Senate needs the Democrats support. That makes the current fight less about whether Thursday’s markup can happen and more about whether ethics concerns tied to Trump family crypto holdings weaken bipartisan support before the floor stage.

CLARITY Act Heads to Markup

The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to meet in executive session on May 14 to consider H.R.3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025. The committee notice confirms that the bill is formally on the agenda for Thursday. 

Terrett said Senate Banking Chairman Tim Scott scheduled the markup for 10:30 a.m. ET. She also reported that the final legislative text was expected before the vote, while senators would need to submit amendments before the close of business on Tuesday. 

The bill would set a federal market structure framework for digital assets. It would clarify when tokens fall under securities or commodities rules, while also addressing stablecoin rewards after months of negotiations between banks, crypto firms, and Senate offices. 

However, Thursday is not the same as the final passage. A committee markup decides whether the bill advances from Senate Banking, while full Senate passage still needs broader support and likely 60 votes.

Democrats and Ethics Stay Central

The biggest question now is Democratic support. Terrett said the key issue before Thursday is whether Democrats vote with Republicans or hold back over unresolved objections, especially ethics language.

Coin Edition also said transparency around Trump family crypto holdings is becoming a central issue in the CLARITY debate. Its point is simple: if the bill is about market trust and structure, lawmakers may face pressure to apply transparency standards to people shaping the rules.

As per reports, Democrats oppose the bill due to concerns about anti-money laundering protections and political profiteering from crypto assets. That makes Trump-related transparency a real pressure point, not just a side debate. 

Meanwhile, banking groups are still unhappy with the stablecoin yield compromise. However, Terrett’s reporting suggests ethics may carry more weight at this stage than the bank’s push to reopen yield language.

Polymarket Odds Rise Before Vote

Polymarket traders now give the CLARITY Act a 73% chance of being signed into law in 2026. That is a sharp rise from 46% at the start of May, indicating stronger market confidence ahead of Thursday’s markup. 

The chart shows the odds recovering strongly in May after falling toward the mid-40% range earlier in the month. The latest move above 70% reflects growing belief that Senate Banking will advance the bill.

Still, prediction markets measure expectations, not votes. The bill may clear the committee even if no Democrats support it, but a partisan result could make the full Senate path harder.

For now, the answer is clear: the CLARITY Act can pass Thursday’s committee stage, but Democrats support remains the real test. The main hold-up is no longer only stablecoin rewards. It is also the fight over ethics, the Trump family’s crypto transparency.

Related: Senator Elizabeth Warren Presses Meta on Stablecoin Plans Before CLARITY Act Vote