- CryptoQuant says $53,600 may be a valuation floor, not a confirmed bottom.
- Bitcoin demand fell by 652,000 BTC as spot ETF demand growth dropped to -74,000 BTC.
- Crypto Rover said Bitcoin may need to test lower support levels before a bottom forms.
Bitcoin remains under pressure as analysts debate whether the current correction is nearing a bottom or if further downside remains ahead. While some on-chain indicators suggest Bitcoin is approaching historically important valuation levels, several market observers argue that key support zones have yet to be tested.
CryptoQuant believes Bitcoin may be approaching a key valuation zone, with its realized price near $53,600 emerging as a potential downside floor if current weakness persists. Research head Julio Moreno cautioned that the level should not be viewed as a confirmed cycle bottom, but rather as a valuation benchmark that has historically provided support during major market downturns.
The firm’s view comes as Bitcoin demand continues to weaken. CryptoQuant reported that total demand fell by 652,000 BTC last week, while 30-day spot ETF demand growth dropped to -74,000 BTC, reflecting a significant slowdown in investor appetite. Despite the deterioration, Moreno noted that realized holder losses remain well below levels typically associated with capitulation events.
Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have often bottomed near or slightly below the realized price. During the FTX-driven collapse in 2022, Bitcoin briefly traded beneath its realized price before recovering. With Bitcoin currently trading around $63,000, it remains roughly 9% above the $53,600 realized-price level. According to CryptoQuant, the absence of panic-selling conditions similar to previous market bottoms suggests the current level should be treated as a potential valuation floor rather than confirmation that the cycle low is already in place.
Some Analysts See Lower Targets
Crypto analyst Crypto Rover discussed a long-term trendline that Bitcoin has respected for nearly a decade. Previous touches of the line were followed by rallies of 1,300%, 1,900%, 1,900%, and 700% across different market cycles.
Bitcoin has now returned to that trendline once again. However, Rover does not believe the correction is necessarily over.
He added that Bitcoin has reached the short-term holder realized price near $74,000 but has not yet tested the broader realized price level around $53,600 or the long-term holder realized price near $50,000.
He noted that previous cycle bottoms traded below realized price levels before a sustained recovery began.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also identified $48,300 as an important accumulation area based on Bitcoin’s Investor Price metric. He previously highlighted the $53,900 and $43,150 MVRV bands as major support zones.
Related: Analyst Sees BTC Retesting Support Amid Market Weakness
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