- BTC spot ETFs bled $469M on June 24 in outflows, while ETH also shed $30M.
- BTC.top founder Jiang Zhuoer sees Bitcoin bottoming at $42K–$44K by late 2026.
- Strategy mNAV hit 0.72, approaching the 0.7 low seen in the May 2022 bear cycle.
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a significant outflow of $469.08 million on 24 June, marking one of the sharpest single-day exits of recent weeks. Ethereum ETFs shed an additional $30.24 million on the same day, while XRP ETFs bucked the trend with modest inflows of $2.05 million. Solana and BNB ETFs saw no movement.
$10 Billion in Options Expiring This Friday
Adding to the pressure, a massive 162,000 BTC options contracts worth $10.16 billion are set to expire this Friday at 8:00 AM UTC, making it one of the largest Bitcoin options expiries of the year. Max pain sits at $72,000, with a put/call ratio of 0.81, meaning slightly more calls than puts are outstanding. Options expiries of this scale can create short-term volatility as traders adjust or close positions heading into the settlement window.
China’s Top Bitcoin Miner Calls the Bottom
Against that backdrop, one of China’s most prominent Bitcoin miners has gone public with a bear market bottom prediction. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.top mining pool, published a detailed analysis arguing that Bitcoin is likely to bottom between October and December 2026, with a price floor in the $42,000 to $44,000 range.
His case centres on Strategy’s mNAV ratio, which measures the company’s stock price against the value of its Bitcoin holdings per share. An mNAV above 1 signals overvaluation, while below 1 reflects pessimism. Strategy’s mNAV has now dropped to 0.72, approaching the 0.7 low recorded on 11 May 2022 during the previous cycle’s transition from bull to bear market.
Jiang said that in the last cycle, mNAV bottomed at 0.7 when Bitcoin was trading around $31,017. Bitcoin did not reach its actual price bottom until six months later, hitting $15,476 on 21 November 2022, at which point mNAV had actually recovered to 1.2. The takeaway is that mNAV and BTC price do not bottom simultaneously, and the current mNAV reading may be signaling that the price low is still months away.
A Four-Year Cycle Model Points to October 2026
Jiang’s prediction is grounded in a four-year halving-cycle framework combined with a mathematical model he describes as working like a ball bouncing on the ground, with each cycle producing progressively smaller volatility swings as Bitcoin’s total market cap grows. Under that model, the bear market is expected to bottom at $44,016 on 31 October 2026.
He was careful to say that the model is more reliable for timing than for price, and that recent market events, including the significant de-anchoring of Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, suggest the current mNAV level likely marks the low point for this metric in the current cycle.
Related: CryptoQuant Calls for a Pause in Strategy Bitcoin Purchases
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