- Monday’s net outflow of 24,073 BTC was the largest since March 1, per Santiment.
- Exchange balances sit at 6.497% of BTC supply, down from around 7.1% a year ago.
- Monday’s net outflow equals roughly 0.12% of supply, a fifth of the yearly drop.
Bitcoin just had its largest net exchange outflow in seven months. According to Santiment, 24,073 BTC left trading platforms on Monday, the most since March 1, and exchange balances now sit at about 6.5% of total supply. Many traders are reading that as a supply squeeze.
How Big Is It, Really?
About 20 million Bitcoins are in circulation, so Monday’s outflow is roughly 0.12% of supply. On the chart, the exchange share has slipped from around 7.1% in October 2025 to 6.497% now.
That is a drop of about 0.6 percentage points over a year, and this one day accounts for around a fifth of it. It is a big day, but it doesn’t change how much Bitcoin is sitting on exchanges in any dramatic way.
Trend Did Not Stop the Slide
Exchange supply has been falling for a year, and during that time Bitcoin dropped from about $126,000 to lows near $57,000 before climbing back to roughly $85,000.
So a falling balance has shown up in good stretches and bad ones, which makes it hard to treat as a buy signal on its own. The March 1 outflow, the last one this size, was followed by more losses, not a lasting rally.
Are the Whale Numbers a Second Signal or the Same One?
Wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC reportedly added 86,702 BTC over three weeks, taking their combined total to the highest since April 23. Coins that leave an exchange end up in some wallet, and some of Monday’s 24,073 BTC may have landed in that very group. If so, the outflow and the whale buying are partly the same coins counted twice, not two separate votes of confidence. Custody moves can also show up as outflows even when nobody is buying anything new.
What Would Make the Case Stronger
- Outflows that continue for several days in a row, not a single spike
- Few coins heading back to exchanges if price pushes toward $90,000, where people who bought lower may want to sell
- Real buying demand showing up alongside the withdrawals
Smaller wallets, those under 0.01 BTC, are taking profits right now according to the same data, and bigger buyers are absorbing that selling for now. The real test comes near $90,000. Until then, Monday’s outflow is a helpful sign, not a forecast.
Related: Why a Bond Market Crisis Could Send Bitcoin Above $100K: Fundstrat
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