- Bitcoin shows signs similar to the 2022 bear market as analysts warn of possible further downside.
- CryptoQuant says weakening ETF, futures, and spot demand is increasing bearish market pressure.
- Despite bearish signals, Bitcoin remains above $77K as traders watch for consolidation or decline.
Bitcoin is showing signs that remind analysts of the 2022 bear market, raising concerns that prices could either fall further or move sideways for a long time.
Data from on-chain analytics firms Swissblock and CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s market momentum is weakening. At the same time, investor sentiment is becoming increasingly bearish.
Bitcoin Losing Momentum, But No Major Breakdown Yet
Swissblock said Bitcoin’s strong bullish momentum has faded, but the market has not yet fully entered a breakdown phase. The firm compared the current situation to June and July 2025, when Bitcoin lost momentum but later recovered after trading sideways for some time.
According to Swissblock, Bitcoin could still avoid a major crash if momentum stays above key support levels. For now, the firm expects consolidation rather than an immediate sharp decline.
CryptoQuant Warns of a 2022-Style Setup
CryptoQuant is more bearish on Bitcoin’s outlook. The firm noted that Bitcoin recently failed to break above its 200-day moving average near $82,400. Analysts say this looks very similar to March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly rallied before continuing its larger downtrend.
CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno explained that Bitcoin rose about 37% from its April 2026 lows before hitting resistance. In 2022, Bitcoin also rallied strongly before getting rejected at the same technical level.
Historically, the 200-day moving average has often separated temporary rallies from true market recoveries during bear markets.
Demand Weakening Across the Market
CryptoQuant also said demand for Bitcoin is slowing across several areas of the market. In futures markets, traders began closing leveraged long positions after Bitcoin failed to hold above $82,000. Spot market demand has also weakened.
At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly turned into net sellers after previously buying large amounts of BTC earlier in May.
Another bearish signal is the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which has remained negative. Normally, strong bull markets are supported by aggressive buying from U.S. investors, but current data suggests many investors are still cautious.
Bearish Sentiment Growing
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index recently dropped from 40 to 20, which the firm describes as “extremely bearish.”
Similar readings were seen earlier in 2026 when Bitcoin fell toward the $60,000–$66,000 range. Historically, low Bull Score readings have often been associated with either greater downside or prolonged sideways trading.
If Bitcoin declines further, CryptoQuant says the next major support level could be around $70,000.
Bitcoin Still Holding Above $77K
Despite the growing bearish outlook, Bitcoin has so far remained above $77,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $77,320, up about 0.6% over the past 24 hours, as traders continue to watch whether the market stabilizes or enters a deeper downtrend.
Related: BTC Market Enters Reset Phase as MVRV Slips Below 180-Day Average
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