XRP Price Prediction: Will Kalshi’s XRP Perpetuals Trigger a Break Above $1.17?

• XRP trades below major EMAs, signaling persistent bearish conditions across markets.
• Stabilizing open interest hints at eased liquidations and potential renewed confidence.
• Kalshi’s XRP perpetuals offer U.S. traders a regulated, zero-fee exposure option.

XRP remains under pressure as traders weigh weakening market participation against a significant expansion in regulated derivatives access. The token has struggled to regain momentum after a recent recovery attempt, while new developments in the United States derivatives market could influence sentiment in the coming weeks.

The digital asset recently rebounded from its June low near $1.05 and briefly approached the $1.17 region. However, sellers quickly returned and pushed prices back toward the $1.11 area. Consequently, XRP continues to trade below several major moving averages, highlighting persistent bearish conditions across the market.

Technical Structure Remains Fragile

Market data shows XRP trading beneath the 20, 50, 100, and 200 exponential moving averages on the four-hour chart. Additionally, the Supertrend indicator continues to signal downside pressure, reinforcing the current bearish structure.

Immediate support sits between $1.105 and $1.112, which represents the current trading range. Below that, traders continue to monitor the $1.082 to $1.090 zone. 

Significantly, the June low near $1.051 remains a major support area. A move below that level could expose the important psychological threshold at $1.00.

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On the upside, resistance begins near $1.15. Moreover, the $1.17 region marks an important technical hurdle. If buyers reclaim that level, attention could shift toward $1.21 and $1.25, where stronger selling interest previously emerged.

Derivatives Activity Shows Signs of Stabilization

Open interest trends reveal a dramatic shift from the highly leveraged conditions seen during XRP’s rally earlier in 2025. At the peak, open interest exceeded $10 billion as prices surged above $3.00.

Since then, traders have steadily reduced exposure. Current open interest stands near $2.41 billion, reflecting significantly lower speculative activity. However, recent stabilization suggests that forced liquidations have eased. Hence, analysts may view any future increase in open interest alongside rising prices as evidence of renewed market confidence.

Meanwhile, spot market flows continue to favor outflows. Although several periods recorded temporary inflow spikes, outflows dominated most of the observed period. Recent netflows remained slightly negative, indicating cautious investor sentiment and limited accumulation activity.

Kalshi Launch Adds New XRP Trading Avenue

Amid these market conditions, prediction market operator Kalshi has introduced XRP perpetual trading for U.S. users. The launch follows the firm’s recent rollout of Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual products.

Kalshi’s expansion arrives as regulatory clarity around digital assets continues to improve in the United States. Additionally, the platform has introduced a temporary zero-fee promotion designed to encourage participation. The new product could strengthen liquidity over time and provide XRP traders with another regulated avenue to gain market exposure.

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Technical Outlook For XRP Price

Key levels remain well-defined as XRP trades near a critical support zone following weeks of consolidation and declining derivatives activity.

Upside levels: $1.145, $1.171, and $1.208 represent the first resistance hurdles. A successful breakout above these levels could open the path toward $1.245 and the major $1.30 resistance region.

Downside levels: $1.105 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.082 and the June low at $1.051. A breakdown below these areas could expose the psychologically important $1.00 level.

Resistance ceiling: The $1.245–$1.30 zone, which aligns with the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement area and the 200 EMA, remains the key barrier that bulls must reclaim to restore medium-term bullish momentum.

The technical structure continues to favor caution. XRP remains below all major moving averages, while the Supertrend indicator stays in sell mode. However, open interest has stabilized after a sharp decline from 2025 highs, suggesting that forced liquidations have eased and the market may be preparing for its next directional move.

Will XRP Go Up?

XRP’s near-term outlook depends heavily on whether buyers can defend the $1.10 support region and reclaim $1.17 resistance. A breakout above $1.17 could improve market sentiment and trigger a move toward $1.21, $1.25, and potentially $1.30. Moreover, renewed growth in open interest and stronger spot inflows would provide additional confirmation of bullish participation.

Conversely, failure to hold $1.10 would strengthen bearish pressure and increase the likelihood of a retest of $1.05. A decisive break below that level could expose XRP to the $1.00 psychological support zone.

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For now, XRP remains at a pivotal juncture. The launch of new XRP perpetual products and improving regulatory clarity may support long-term adoption. However, technical confirmation and stronger capital inflows will determine whether XRP can stage a sustained recovery or extend its corrective phase.