- Mike McGlone still sees Bitcoin falling toward $10,000 if the S&P 500 falls 20%.
- Scott Melker argues a 20% Nasdaq drop does not make a $10,000 Bitcoin plausible.
- Darkfost says only about 30% of invested Bitcoin capital is currently in profit.
Bitcoin traded near $75,963 on Saturday, up 0.5% in 24 hours and down 1.6% over the week, while market commentators argued over what a falling Nasdaq could mean for the largest cryptocurrency.
Bear Case
Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone says the call he made in the first quarter of 2025, when Bitcoin was above $100,000, remains his base case. It holds that Bitcoin loses a zero, falling toward $10,000, if the S&P 500 drops 20% and stays lower for a while.
McGlone calls $10,000 a key pivot and says he believes the next stock bear market has already begun. His record includes calls in October 2020 for Bitcoin to add a zero from $10,000 and in the first quarter of 2018 for it to lose one from $10,000. He said that Bitcoin peaked on Oct. 6, 2025, and that the Nasdaq peaked on Oct. 6, 2026.
He also said Bitcoin’s failure to hold $80,000 and copper’s slide below support near $6.40 a pound after the US midterms could point to selling that cascades into year-end.
The Pushback
Scott Melker, however, argued the numbers do not fit that script. The Nasdaq is about halfway to a 20% decline, he wrote, yet Bitcoin is nowhere near $10,000.
He shared a remark saying the index had entered correction territory, more than 10% below its recent high, while Bitcoin still sat $17,000 to $18,000 above its low.
Related: Bitcoin Price Declines After Nasdaq’s 5.5% Crash: Is BTC Trading More Like an AI Stock?
What the On-Chain Data Shows
Analyst Darkfost reported that a large share of the capital invested in Bitcoin changed hands between $75,000 and $85,000, including about $26 billion at the current price alone. Only about 30% of invested capital, roughly $328 billion, is in profit, compared with $756 billion held at a loss.
Far less capital changed hands between $70,000 and $75,000, Darkfost said. If $75,000 gives way, the area around $70,000 could be the next support level.
On Nov. 5, Julio Moreno described a difficult setup for Bitcoin, pointing to demand that is falling faster and stablecoin liquidity that is contracting. He placed price support at $73,000 to $76,000.
Related: 24 Hour Crypto Recap: Here’s What Happened in the Market
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