- Bitcoin slipped below $77K as geopolitical tensions shook markets globally.
- Binance Research says long-term Bitcoin holders continue to avoid selling.
- The exchange Bitcoin supply dropped to its lowest level in nearly six years.
Bitcoin dropped below $77,000 as Middle East tensions returned to the headlines. US oil prices surged above $107 a barrel after President Trump warned Iran that “the clock is ticking,” sending crypto markets and global risk assets lower in tandem.
The total crypto market cap fell 1.45% to $2.56 trillion. Ethereum slipped to $2,122. XRP traded at $1.39.
What Binance Research Just Found
While the price action grabbed attention, Binance Research published an analysis pointing to four separate on-chain indicators that all suggest sell-side pressure on Bitcoin is approaching exhaustion.
Nearly 60% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over a year. That dormancy figure has been climbing steadily since 2012, when it was just 27%.
It peaked at 69.5% in January 2024, around the time spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, and despite the sell-the-news reaction that followed, dormancy has remained near historical highs. Long-term holders are simply not selling.
Short-term speculators have largely left the market. The Short to Long Term Realized Value indicator is sitting deep in its historical bottom zone, signaling market apathy and a clean exit by speculative traders.
Historically, every prior cycle bottom coincided with this metric entering exactly the zone it sits in today.
About 500,000 Bitcoins have permanently left exchanges. Exchange balances peaked at 17.6% of total supply during COVID.
They now sit at 15%, meaning roughly half a million Bitcoin have moved into cold storage and self-custody since then. Available sell-side supply on exchanges is at a six-year low.
Short-term holders are quietly rebuilding profits. The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator stayed below 1.0 for most of the period since November 2024, gradually wearing out sellers.
It just reclaimed the 1.0 level, marking the point where short-term holders return to unrealized profit territory. Historically, this setup has preceded sustained recoveries rather than further declines.
What It All Means
The pictures from Binance Research are striking when read together. Long-term holders are not selling. Short-term speculators have already exited. Exchange supply is at multi-year lows. The traders who would normally sell into rallies are now sitting on small unrealized gains and have no urgency to liquidate.
In other words, the people most likely to drive Bitcoin lower from here have already done so. The structural setup is consistent with cycle bottoms, not cycle tops.
Related: Bitcoin Falls Below $77K Despite Saylor Buy Hints, CLARITY Act Progress
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