- Bitcoin recovered 3.6% to $78,354 after falling to $75,618 following the U.S. midterm results.
- Trump’s influence on Bitcoin appears to be weakening as broader market forces gain importance.
- Fed policy, ETF flows, and Nasdaq sentiment are increasingly shaping Bitcoin’s price movements.
Bitcoin recovered to $78,354 on Wednesday after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, reversing a slide to $75,618. The bounce raises a question about President Donald Trump’s influence: Are his statements moving Bitcoin less than before, or do other market forces increasingly shape the aftermath?
Midterm Rebound Challenges the Political Narrative
Bitcoin climbed to $78,039 within three hours of hitting its election-night low, gaining 3.2%, according to TradingView data. The recovery continued, with BTC later reaching $78,354, about 3.6% above the low. The rebound came as U.S. stock futures began recovering from their initial losses.
Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen 2.4%, but broader futures subsequently regained ground. Meanwhile, CoinDesk reported $660 million in Bitcoin options block transactions on election day, including $420 million in purchased calls. The election outcome was also widely anticipated.
Paradigm’s Nicolas Quatravaux noted that prediction markets had already placed the probability of a Democratic victory above 75%. Bitcoin’s recovery therefore came as election uncertainty eased and broader risk sentiment improved, complicating efforts to attribute the price movement to Trump’s political influence alone.
How Trump’s 2024–2025 Announcements Moved Bitcoin
Trump’s November 2024 election victory sent Bitcoin sharply higher, as BTC surged 9% to $75,648 on November 6 and continued climbing over the following days. By November 11, it had reached $87,460, another 16.5% increase.
The rally also drew institutional demand, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $1.38 billion on November 7. The response to Trump’s March 2, 2025, Bitcoin reserve announcement was much shorter-lived. Bitcoin initially jumped from around $85,000 to above $94,000, but the gains quickly faded.
Traders began questioning whether the government would buy additional Bitcoin or simply retain its existing holdings. By March 3, BTC had slipped to $86,292, roughly 8% below Sunday’s levels. Those questions became more pressing after Trump signed the executive order on March 6.
The measure established a strategic reserve using Bitcoin already forfeited to the government, rather than committing to immediate new purchases. Bitcoin briefly dropped about 5% to $85,000 following the announcement, as the policy’s details fell short of the expectations surrounding the original proposal.
Why Trump’s 2026 Headlines Are Producing Different Reactions
Trump’s announcements continued to move Bitcoin in 2026, although the reactions varied. When he raised proposed tariffs from 10% to 15% on February 21, BTC initially gained 0.5% before slipping nearly 1% toward $68,000. The decline continued over the next two days.
By February 23, Bitcoin had fallen from around $67,700 to $64,270, losing 5.1%. However, geopolitical tensions and thin market liquidity also weighed on prices. His comments on Iran triggered sharper moves. On March 23, Trump announced a five-day postponement of planned strikes, sending Bitcoin from $67,500 to above $71,200 within an hour.
That represented a gain of approximately 5.5%. However, the rally quickly lost momentum after Iran denied that talks were taking place. As a result, Bitcoin shed $1,200 within minutes and later traded near $70,000. A different pattern emerged in October.
On October 8, Trump’s pledge not to strike Iran before the midterms coincided with a more gradual recovery. Bitcoin climbed 2.7%, from around $80,300 to $82,500, by the following day. Nasdaq futures also gained 0.83%, while Brent crude fell roughly 1%. Even with that recovery, Bitcoin remained about 4% lower for the week.
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Are Fed Policy, ETF Flows, and Nasdaq Sentiment Becoming More Important?
The Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike offered a different picture. Bitcoin barely moved immediately after the central bank raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, holding near $75,700. A day earlier, spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded $450.33 million in outflows.
BTC also fell about 1.7% over 24 hours following a failed Senate vote on crypto legislation, although the decline could not be tied to that decision alone. Market attention returned to monetary policy on October 28, when the Fed held rates steady but warned about inflation. Bitcoin initially moved toward $81,000.
However, the recovery faded during the following Asian session, with BTC sliding from above $81,700 to around $79,800. Nasdaq futures also dropped 1.4% as technology stocks weakened. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $643.3 million in outflows on October 30, following a major exchange hack.
A similar connection with broader markets emerged on November 4. Bitcoin recovered as U.S. stock futures regained earlier losses, while investors continued weighing political developments alongside monetary conditions and institutional fund flows.
Has Bitcoin Really Become Less Sensitive to Trump?
The March 2026 Iran-related price spike suggests Trump can still move Bitcoin. However, a presidential election victory and a single political statement do not carry the same market implications, making direct comparisons difficult.
A clearer assessment would require comparing Bitcoin’s returns over one hour, 24 hours, and seven days following similar statements. Those figures would also need to account for Nasdaq movements, Federal Reserve surprises, ETF flows, and broader market volatility.
So far, Bitcoin’s responses to Trump-related developments have varied, but the available comparisons do not establish that those reactions have become smaller.
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