- SecondFi’s $20M exploit deepens pressure on Cardano as bearish sentiment persists.
- ADA remains below major EMAs while sellers continue controlling the broader trend.
- Weak open interest and negative exchange netflows reflect cautious investor sentiment.
Cardano faced renewed pressure after a major security breach hit one of its ecosystem projects, adding fresh uncertainty to an already weak technical outlook. SecondFi reportedly lost more than $20 million after attackers exploited a flaw in its wallet generation software. The incident prompted urgent warnings for users to move their assets into newly generated wallets.
Besides damaging confidence across the Cardano ecosystem, the exploit arrived while ADA continued trading in a well-established downtrend. Weak derivatives activity and persistent exchange inflows further suggest that investors remain cautious despite occasional recovery attempts.
Technical Indicators Continue to Favor Sellers
ADA continues to trade below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages. This alignment confirms that sellers still control the broader trend. Moreover, the token keeps forming lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish market structure.
The immediate support sits at the 0% Fibonacci retracement near $0.1377. A daily close below this level could trigger another wave of selling. Consequently, traders may look for deeper downside if bearish momentum accelerates.
On the upside, ADA must first reclaim resistance at $0.1734, which represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Additional resistance appears at $0.1955, $0.2132, and $0.2312. However, buyers must clear these levels with strong trading volume before sentiment can improve.
The Directional Movement Index also supports the bearish outlook. The ADX remains elevated around 43, signaling a strong trend. Additionally, the negative directional indicator continues to hold well above the positive indicator, confirming that bearish momentum still dominates.
Weak Market Participation Reflects Cautious Sentiment
Derivatives activity also points to declining confidence. Cardano’s open interest has fallen dramatically from more than $1.8 billion during the late-2025 rally to roughly $370.7 million. This sharp decline suggests traders have steadily reduced leveraged positions throughout the prolonged correction.
Spot market data show similar structure. Exchange inflows have consistently exceeded outflows during most of the observed period. Large inflow spikes during previous months reflected increased selling activity, while positive netflow sessions remained too small to shift momentum.
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Recent figures continue that trend. Netflows stayed slightly negative, including a reading near negative $109,900 on June 26. Although selling pressure appears less aggressive than before, investors have yet to show sustained accumulation.
Technical Outlook for Cardano Price
Key levels remain clearly defined as ADA trades near a critical support zone, with bearish momentum still dominating the higher timeframe.
Upside levels: $0.1734 (23.6% Fibonacci), $0.1955 (38.2% Fibonacci), and $0.2132 (50% Fibonacci) serve as the first recovery hurdles. A sustained breakout above these levels could open the door toward $0.2312 (61.8% Fibonacci) and signal improving market sentiment.
Downside levels: Immediate support sits at $0.1377, the current Fibonacci base. A decisive daily close below this level could trigger another wave of selling and extend the prevailing downtrend.
Resistance ceiling: The 20-day EMA remains the first dynamic resistance, while the bearish alignment of the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs continues to cap upside attempts. ADA must reclaim these moving averages to shift the medium-term outlook.
The technical structure remains firmly bearish, with the Directional Movement Index showing a strong trend as the ADX stays elevated and the negative directional indicator continues to outperform the positive indicator. Meanwhile, declining open interest signals reduced speculative participation, while persistent exchange inflows suggest investors remain cautious.
Will Cardano Go Up?
Cardano’s next move depends on whether buyers can defend the $0.1377 support level and regain momentum above the $0.1734–$0.1955 resistance zone. A breakout backed by rising trading volume and increasing open interest would strengthen the case for a broader recovery toward $0.2132 and $0.2312.
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However, failure to hold current support could invite another leg lower as bearish sentiment and exchange selling pressure continue to weigh on the market. For now, ADA remains at a pivotal technical level, with price action over the coming sessions likely to determine the direction of the next major trend.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
