Cardano Price Prediction: Retail Stays on the Sidelines as Whales Keep Buying

• Cardano price prediction stays bullish above $0.2392, the 200-day EMA ADA now trades above
• Hoskinson teased a “world-changing” project, speculated to tie to SpaceX
• Longs absorbed $599.67K of the past 24 hours’ $944.25K in ADA liquidations

Cardano price prediction stays bullish above $0.2392, the level ADA needs to hold as Hoskinson teases a mysterious “world-changing” project even while the broader market pulls back.

Cardano Price Analysis: Can ADA Hold Above Its 200-Day EMA?

So far, yes. ADA trades near $0.2482, up 0.24% today after touching a session high of $0.2532, holding just above the 200-day EMA at $0.2392, a level price has mostly traded below since the sharp reversal that hit in May. T

hat reversal came after a Supertrend sell signal fired near $0.28 in early May, triggering a slide from around $0.29 down to a low near $0.14 by early July.

Price has since recovered steadily. All three shorter EMAs sit below current price:

That’s a fully bullish stack. A Supertrend buy signal fired near the July low and has tracked higher since, currently offering support around $0.21. Clearing the descending resistance line drawn from the earlier sell signal, which sits closer to $0.26, would be the next real test of whether this recovery has more room to run.

ADA Support and Resistance Levels

Cardano News: Hoskinson Teases a “World-Changing” Project Tied to SpaceX

Charles Hoskinson said he’s traveling to Texas for what he’s calling the biggest project he’s ever worked on, describing it as world-changing and bigger than Cardano itself, according to trader Cheeky Crypto Unfiltered on his YouTube channel. He didn’t confirm details but hopes to announce it publicly this year.

The analyst speculated the project ties to SpaceX, pointing to Hoskinson calling the company great and noting Cardano’s Midnight team had already explored connections to Elon Musk’s Starlink goals. Hoskinson went further himself, saying any resulting deal would include a marketing campaign letting ADA and Midnight holders apply for jobs, potentially astronaut training. None of this is confirmed beyond Hoskinson’s own remarks, it’s a teaser, not an announced partnership.

The comments landed as Cardano marked its ninth birthday, with zero recorded downtime since its 2017 genesis block. Separately, Hoskinson said Leios remains on schedule, and confirmed 2027 will be his main focus year for Midnight, the network’s privacy chain he’s positioning as core infrastructure for future finance and AI.

Cardano News: Retail Stays on the Sidelines as ADA Tests a Historically Significant Level

ADA posted a bearish engulfing candle the day before, falling 6.4% and retesting support near $0.2330, according to LuckSide Crypto. The pullback came alongside a broader market retreat:

• Bitcoin dropped toward $82,829
• Roughly $542 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated market-wide as the rally stalled
• The US rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with talk resurfacing of Iran closing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait too, pushing oil prices higher
• The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.44%, its highest since June 2004, as markets priced roughly 75% odds of an October rate hike and 55% odds of another in December

LuckSide flagged one on-chain signal worth watching: ADA’s dominance relative to the broader crypto market is testing its own 200-day moving average, a level it hasn’t sustainably broken above since November 2023, right before that cycle’s altcoin rally began.

The analyst also argued retail remains unusually inactive this cycle, historically slower to buy bottoms than whales and more prone to buying too early, as happened in 2022. With ADA and Bitcoin both well above their 2026 lows already, LuckSide suggested retail investors waiting for lower prices may end up staying on the sidelines entirely if whale buying patterns hold.

Cardano Derivatives: Longs Absorb the Bulk of Today’s Liquidations

ADA derivatives volume fell 18.44% to $723.69 million over the past 24 hours, meaning less trading overall, while open interest, the total value of open positions, held steady at $580.31 million, up 3.02%. That combination means traders are keeping their positions on even as the market cools down.

Longs took the bigger hit, which makes sense given prices pulled back. Traders betting on higher prices lost $599.67K over 24 hours, versus $344.58K for traders betting on lower prices, and that same pattern showed up over the last four hours too. Even so, most traders are still betting on ADA going up, Binance shows more than two long positions for every short.

Cardano Price Prediction: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for September 26

Bullish Case, Target: $0.26

ADA holds above $0.2392 and clears the descending resistance line near $0.26 that’s capped price since May’s reversal. Continued whale accumulation and any concrete progress on Hoskinson’s teased project could support a push back toward the $0.28 zone that triggered May’s sell-off.

Bearish Case, Risk Level: $0.2106 (50-Day EMA)

ADA loses $0.2392 and slips back toward the 20-day EMA at $0.225. A hawkish Fed decision in October, continued Middle East tension pressuring risk assets broadly, or a break of ADA dominance’s own 200-day MA rejection would fit that scenario, exposing the 50-day EMA at $0.2106 next.

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