- Kendrick says Bitcoin $59K was the cycle bottom and does not expect prices to breach it again.
- SpaceX IPO liquidity drain and Iran conflict were key drivers of the recent crypto selloff.
- ETF inflows returning positive and oil prices falling are needed to fully confirm the reversal.
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick declared the crypto winter over on Friday, stating that Bitcoin’s drop to approximately $59,000 likely marked the cycle bottom and that the path toward year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum remains intact.
Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 before falling 53% to its recent low. Kendrick’s position is that $59,000 represents a hard floor for this cycle, and he does not expect prices to breach it again. Bitcoin is trading at $63,484 at press time, recovering from recent lows.
What Caused the Selloff
Kendrick identified three specific factors behind the recent decline rather than attributing it to fundamental weakness in the asset class.
Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows reached some of their heaviest levels since launch as institutional investors liquidated positions to free up cash ahead of the SpaceX IPO. The historic $1.77 trillion listing created significant liquidity demand that pulled capital from risk assets, including Bitcoin, simultaneously.
The US-Iran conflict escalated oil prices and pushed macro stress higher, weighing on all risk assets as bond yields rose and investor appetite for speculative positions contracted.
With SpaceX now trading and reports of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, Kendrick believes that the specific source of selling pressure is fading.
What Needs to Happen for Confirmation
Kendrick listed several conditions that would fully confirm the trend reversal:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF flows returning to net positive
- Continued institutional and corporate treasury buying
- Lower oil prices are ideally supported by a US-Iran peace deal ahead of the G7 summit
- Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin as conditions stabilize
What stands out in Kendrick’s analysis is how deeply crypto has become connected to broader macro forces. IPO cycles, bond yields, energy markets, and ETF positioning are all influencing sentiment simultaneously, a dynamic that feels fundamentally different from earlier crypto cycles driven almost entirely by internal narratives.
Standard Chartered previously held a $150,000 Bitcoin target before adjusting it downward as conditions deteriorated. The $100,000 year-end target means approximately 70% upside from current levels.
Related: Bitcoin Climbs Above $63K While Analysts Debate Next Move Toward $68K
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