- Ki Young Ju noted that post-midterm clarity will help investors gauge Bitcoin’s outlook.
- A bearish GMMA signal and over $1B in recent ETF outflows signal weak buying support.
- BTC posted 12-month post-midterm gains of ~25% in 2014, ~45% in 2018, and ~92% in 2022.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin might get a clearer short-term direction once the US midterm elections are done.
However, with BTC dropping slightly under $77,000, spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing fresh outflows, and tech stocks under pressure, political uncertainty might only be part of the issue.
In a November 3 post on X, Ki Young Ju said short-term investors hate uncertainty, and that the midterms were the last big unknown of the year. He stated that once results are in, it could be easier for investors to get a read on Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.
Ju’s argument follows an October 28 post in which he said that money moving into Bitcoin ETFs had broken even for the year, despite Bitcoin being down about 7% at the time. The CEO’s main takeaway is that heavy selling from early investors and miners seems to have mostly dried up, opening the door for another price surge if buyers start pouring money back into ETFs.
Bearish Technical Signals and ETF Outflows Challenge the Thesis
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s latest price trends call for caution, considering BTC slipped below $77,000 on November 3 as tech stocks sold off harder.
Additionally, a key Bitcoin technical indicator, the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA), has flipped bearish. Short-term averages dropped below longer-term ones, which themselves were starting to point lower.
ETF flows are another concern, as US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced about $398.6 million in net outflows on November 2, after roughly $643 million in withdrawals on October 30. Those numbers suggest institutional demand hasn’t yet turned into a steady source of buying pressure.
At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 has dropped into a formal correction, as a big sell-off in semiconductor stocks spreads to the rest of the market.
Because Bitcoin often moves side-by-side with big tech stocks, upcoming election results might not be enough to break the asset out of this downturn.
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Does Bitcoin Usually Rally After Midterms?
In spite of the current negative trends, past price history gives reason for optimism.
In the last three US midterm elections, Bitcoin rose notably in the following 12 months after each one. According to analyst Ash Crypto, Bitcoin climbed around 25% after the 2014 midterms, approximately 45% after the 2018 elections, and roughly 92% after the 2022 vote.
Still, looking at just three past events isn’t enough to prove a guaranteed trend.
In the end, the elections might clear up one unknown, but a lasting Bitcoin recovery would probably need better ETF flows, steadier tech stocks, and stronger chart patterns. A clearer political picture may calm nervous traders, but it can’t guarantee fresh demand.
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Related: Bitcoin Faces Election Volatility: Could the 2022 Midterm Crash Repeat in 2026?
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