- Bitcoin’s historical midterm election pattern points to a market bottom in late 2026 or early 2027.
- Ali Martinez identifies $73,000 as a critical support level amid growing downside risks.
- Merlijn The Trader targets $75,000 as a buying zone during another major correction.
Bitcoin could face another significant decline before reaching its next market bottom in late 2026 or early 2027, following a historical pattern observed around previous U.S. midterm elections.
Bitcoin reached a market bottom shortly after each of the last three midterm elections:
- 2014: 71 days after the election.
- 2018: 39 days after the election.
- 2022: 13 days after the election.
The next U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the historical pattern continues, Bitcoin could experience further downside before establishing its next major market bottom. However, past cycles do not guarantee a similar outcome in 2026.
What Happened in Previous Years?
After the 2014 elections, Bitcoin continued declining before reaching its bottom in January 2015. The cryptocurrency subsequently recovered and eventually reached a major price high in 2017.
The 2018 cycle followed a similar pattern. Bitcoin declined after the elections, hitting a bottom in December. The market then recovered and eventually set a new all-time high in 2021.
In 2022, Bitcoin reached its market bottom much sooner, just 13 days after the November midterm elections.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?
With Bitcoin trading around $78,241 at press time, investors are closely monitoring the market for signs of another major correction.
Although three historical examples do not establish a direct relationship between U.S. midterm elections and Bitcoin’s price, the recurring pattern highlights an important period for market participants.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin faces additional downside before beginning its next major recovery.
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Ali Martinez Warns Bitcoin Faces Further Declines
Analyst Ali Martinez has warned that Bitcoin faces another downturn in the fourth quarter of 2026. In a post, Martinez highlighted Bitcoin’s negative fourth-quarter performance during the last three U.S. midterm election years:
- 2014: -16.70%.
- 2018: -42.16%.
- 2022: -14.75%.
He also highlighted Bitcoin’s major price declines during the previous four midterm election cycles:
- 2010: -72%.
- 2014: -65%.
- 2018: -52%.
- 2022: -27%.
These figures highlight a recurring pattern of significant Bitcoin corrections during midterm election cycles.
Why $73,000 Is an Important Level
Martinez identifies $73,000 as a critical price level to watch if Bitcoin experiences additional selling pressure after the elections. This level sits close to the average purchase price of recent Bitcoin investors.
Historically, Bitcoin has repeatedly found support around similar price levels during bull markets. A recovery from $73,000 would signal buying interest and suggest that investors are stepping in to defend the market.
Conversely, a break below this level would expose Bitcoin to further downside pressure and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
Could Bitcoin Find Its Next Bottom in Late 2026?
Another crypto analyst, Merlijn The Trader, also identifies the midterm election period as a potential buying opportunity. He highlighted previous U.S. midterm election cycles, which were followed by significant Bitcoin corrections and eventual market bottoms.
Merlijn identifies the $75,000– $78,000 range as his preferred buying zone if Bitcoin experiences another major sell-off. For now, two key scenarios stand out:
- Further correction: Bitcoin extends its decline before establishing its next major market bottom.
- Early recovery: Buyers return sooner, triggering a rebound without a deeper correction.
With the November 3 U.S. midterm elections approaching, traders are closely watching the $73,000 support level and the $75,000–$78,000 buying zone.
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Related: Bitcoin Price Prediction November 2026: Can BTC Reclaim $80,225 as ETF Flows Turn Negative?
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
