- CME FedWatch shows an 87.3% chance of a Fed rate hold and a 12.7% chance of a hike on October 28.
- September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, keeping inflation concerns in focus ahead of the Fed meeting.
- Bitcoin retreated toward $81,000 as rate-hike expectations and broader risk-off sentiment weighed on prices.
The CME FedWatch Tool signals that rate cuts are no longer priced in for the October 28, 2026, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As of October 16, 2026, markets assign an 87.3% probability to no change and a 12.7% probability of a hike to 4.00% – 4.25%.
For traders, the key question now is whether rising rate-hike expectations could strengthen the US dollar and put pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) and gold, or whether markets already reflect that risk.
Why Are Fed Rate Cuts Off the Table for October 2026?
Rate cuts are off the table for the October 28 FOMC meeting according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The federal funds target currently sits at 3.75%–4.00% following the Fed’s first hike in three years in September. Markets are placing about 87.3% probability on a flat market and about 12.7% probability on a 25-basis-point increase, with a 0% probability of a cut.
Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target is the primary reason. September CPI increased by 0.6% month-over-month and by 3.7% year-over-year, with core CPI, excluding food and energy, increasing by 0.3% and 2.6%. With inflation not cooling and the economy resilient enough to tolerate higher rates, markets have totally removed cuts from the near-term path.
Will Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds Put Bitcoin Under Pressure?
High expectations of hikes have already exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin. BTC has pulled back as of mid-October to the low of $81,000 after the post-CPI rally in rate-hike expectations and other risk-off conditions.
Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and typically strengthen the U.S. dollar, both of which weigh on crypto prices. If the hike odds continue to rise or stay elevated before the FOMC meeting, BTC could stay range-bound or fall further, especially if yields and the dollar strengthen.
Could a Stronger US Dollar Push Gold Prices Lower?
A strengthening US dollar normally pressures gold since the precious metal is traded globally in dollars and becomes more expensive for holders using other currencies. As yields climbed and hike prospects rose, gold prices, trading around $4,100-$4,150, fell over 1% on the day of the inflation report. If hike expectations reemerge and strengthen the dollar higher again, gold could face renewed headwinds.
What Happens to Bitcoin and Gold if the Fed Holds Rates?
For Bitcoin, a hold would remove the immediate threat of tighter policy and could open the door to short-term relief. However, a hold does not equal an easing cycle. Bitcoin would be moved by a “higher-for-longer” backdrop, with high rates and dollar strength still as headwinds.
For gold, the reaction would likely be constructive in the near term. A hold would diminish the upward pressure on real yields and could give the metal a chance to regain the losses following the CPI.
What Should Traders Watch Before the October 28 FOMC Decision?
Traders should monitor remaining economic data, Fed officials’ speeches, and shifts in CME FedWatch probabilities. Treasury yields, the DXY, and real yields will be important to gauge market expectations, while BTC ETF flows and the rising odds of a December hike could pressure risk assets.
Related: Bitcoin, Stocks, and Metals Slide as Hot CPI Revives Fed Rate-Hike Fears
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