- Kalshi traders cut XRP’s odds of reaching $2 by year-end from 25% to 14%.
- XRP faces bearish signals, with $1.28 emerging as a key support level.
- Analysts warn XRP could fall to $1 or lower if support breaks, despite long-term optimism.
Kalshi traders have lowered the chances of XRP reaching $2 by the end of 2026. The odds dropped from 25% to 14% on October 24, showing that traders are becoming less confident about XRP’s chances of reaching the target.
XRP was trading at around $1.29 at press time, meaning it would need to rise about 55% to reach $2. Confidence is dropping as XRP faces pressure from its technical indicators.
XRP Faces Important Price Levels
XRP’s daily chart shows bearish momentum, with traders watching key support and resistance levels for signs of the next price move.
- $1.2805: A break below this support could trigger further losses.
- $1.3080–$1.3295: Reclaiming this range could signal improving short-term momentum.
- $1.37–$1.40: A resistance zone XRP would need to overcome to strengthen its recovery.
- $1.2514: The 20-week moving average, which could provide support.
These levels suggest XRP faces several hurdles before a strong recovery can take shape. However, bearish indicators do not rule out a rally toward $2.
Prediction Markets vs. Technical Analysis
Kalshi’s odds reflect traders’ expectations, while technical analysis focuses on price movements and market trends. Although both can point in the same direction, they don’t necessarily explain each other.
The decline in XRP’s implied probability of hitting $2 by year-end reflects weaker market sentiment or the limited time remaining for the coin to reach $2.
With about ten weeks left in 2026, XRP has less time to make the roughly 55% gain required to reach the target. However, the available data does not establish why Kalshi’s odds have fallen.
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XRP Community Analysts Warn of Further Downside
Bearish concerns are also emerging among XRP community analysts. Analyst 360Trader recently warned that XRP could fall below $1.
He said a break below the $1.28 support area near the 200-day moving average will expose the token to a liquidity zone around $1.00. However, he also viewed the potential dip as a buying opportunity.
Analyst ChartNerd said XRP remains trapped in a 10-week trading range, with support between $1.25 and $1.30 and resistance between $1.50 and $1.60.
Analysts have identified $1.37 as an initial recovery level, while a break above $1.49 would strengthen bullish momentum. On the downside, a drop below $1 would open the door to $0.84.
A breakout above the $1.50-$1.60 resistance zone would mark new bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $1.25- $1.30 would trigger further losses. Until either boundary breaks decisively, XRP may remain range-bound.
Despite the short-term risks, bearish price action does not necessarily invalidate XRP’s longer-term prospects.
Does XRP Have Enough Time to Recover?
In sum, XRP reaching $2 by the end of 2026 remains possible, but Kalshi’s latest odds suggest traders consider it unlikely. To improve its short-term outlook, XRP would need to hold above $1.2805 and reclaim the $1.3295 range.
Whether XRP can overcome these hurdles in the remaining weeks of 2026 will depend on how its price develops and whether market sentiment improves.
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Related: XRP Price Prediction: XRP Holds Triangle Floor as Whale Deposits to Binance Reach a 7-Month High
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