- Meta is building “Arena,” a prediction market app using virtual points instead of real money.
- The app will let users forecast politics, sports, entertainment, and current events.
- Meta’s move targets rivals like Polymarket and Kalshi as prediction markets grow into a massive industry.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has instructed a team inside the company to develop a standalone prediction market app called Arena. The project could put Meta in competition with leading event-contract platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
According to reports, Arena is being built around a video game-style points system rather than real-money betting. This approach would allow Meta to enter the fast-growing prediction market sector while avoiding many of the regulatory hurdles facing the industry.
Arena Will Launch With Virtual Points
Sources familiar with the project say Arena will let users make predictions on politics, sports, entertainment, and current events.
Instead of wagering cash, users will earn and spend virtual points. The structure could help Meta avoid gambling regulations and event-contract oversight that prediction market operators increasingly face.
Meta has not ruled out introducing real-money betting in the future. For now, a points-based model would allow the company to build an audience, test engagement, and refine the platform before dealing with the legal complexities of cash-based markets.
The strategy resembles Meta’s earlier prediction platform, Forecast. Launched during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Forecast also relied on points-based predictions before being shut down in 2022.
Prediction Markets Continue Rapid Growth
Meta’s move comes as prediction markets emerge as one of the fastest-growing areas of online trading. Polymarket and Kalshi attained substantial traction in the 2024 U.S. election season. Since then, they have expanded into sports, economics, politics, and entertainment forecasting.
Polymarket and Kalshi generated a combined $50 billion in trading volume during 2025. Industry-wide volume has already exceeded $130 billion this year.
Analysts at Bernstein estimate prediction markets could become a $1 trillion annual industry by the end of the decade. The sector is attracting both retail traders and institutional investors.
Growth has also drawn new competitors, including Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, DraftKings, and Flutter Entertainment.
Meta May Be Chasing Data as Much as Revenue
While Arena could eventually generate revenue through fees or wagering activity, some observers believe Meta’s larger goal goes beyond betting.
Meta’s platforms — Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger — reach more than 3.56 billion daily users. That gives the company access to one of the world’s largest pools of consumer behavior data.
Prediction markets generate a constant stream of forecasts on elections, sporting events, financial trends, and public sentiment. That information will provide useful cues for Meta’s artificial intelligence systems.
The data helps train AI models to better understand how large groups of people assess probabilities and future outcomes.
By starting with virtual points, Meta can collect prediction data at scale without the compliance burdens tied to real-money markets. At the same time, it preserves the option of adding financial incentives later.
Market Rivals React to the News
Reports about Arena quickly affected related stocks. DraftKings shares fell more than 2% following the news. Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, also declined during trading.
Investors increasingly see prediction markets as a potential threat to traditional sports betting. Event contracts offer users another way to speculate on sporting results and major real-world events.
Meta’s distribution advantage could heighten those concerns. Unlike startups that must acquire users from scratch, Meta can direct billions of existing users to Arena via its social media ecosystem.
Regulatory Risks Still Loom
Despite their rapid growth, prediction markets remain under increasing scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers.
Officials have raised concerns about insider trading, market manipulation, and the use of non-public information in event-contract markets. Recent federal cases tied to confidential government information have intensified calls for stronger oversight.
Meta insiders reportedly cautioned that Arena remains an experimental project. The app could still be changed significantly or canceled before launch.
Related: Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler Opposes Kalshi in Court
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