Monero Price Prediction November 2026: Can XMR Break $627 as Kraken Drops Its XMR Questionnaires?

• Monero price prediction for November stays bullish above $554.05, with $624 the first ceiling to clear
• Monero’s median November return is -1.85%, against a +11.6% average, per CryptoRank data
• Swap service Wagyu confirmed a data leak exposing 4,580 orders that link deposits to Monero addresses

Monero price prediction for November stays bullish above $554.05, the 50-day average XMR needs to hold after October’s gains.

Monero Price Analysis: Can XMR Clear the $624 Channel Ceiling in November?

XMR clears its channel ceiling only on a daily close above $627, and it keeps its uptrend while closes stay above the 50-day EMA at $554.05. Price is at $597.68, down 0.93% today, in the upper half of an ascending channel drawn from the June low, where the upper line sits near $624.21 and the median line near $534.40. Price has failed to hold above the upper line, with wicks near $658 and $648 in late October and today’s high at $638.73.

The 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $586.12, $554.05, $506.54 and $454.36 sit in order beneath price, which keeps the trend positive. Price is about 2% above the 20-day EMA and about 8% above the 50-day, so a dip to either would be a retest. The channel lines slope upward, so the levels beneath price rise through November.

XMR looks more likely to trade between $554 and $627 in November than to hold above the channel ceiling, and a daily close below $554.05 would put the median line near $534 in play.

Related: Zcash Price Prediction November 2026: Can ZEC Reach $1,400 in November as NU7 Goes Live?

XMR Support and Resistance Levels, November 2026

Monero Seasonality: How October Compares and What November Usually Brings

October 2026 is a good month, but the data gives November a weaker outlook.

• October: XMR is up 7.27% so far, the fifth best of 13 Octobers in CryptoRank’s data and the eighth positive one in the last nine years. The -2.81% average is skewed by 2014 and 2016 (-49.8% and -39.2%), so the +1.32% median is the fairer benchmark. Against it, this October is solid but not unusual.
• November average: The +11.6% figure rests on two years, 2016 (+75.3%) and 2017 (+105.5%). The other ten Novembers average -4.18%.
• November median: The median is -1.85%, and only 5 of 12 Novembers finished positive.
• After a green October: November closed lower in five of the eight years that followed one.

A median November would take XMR from $597.68 to about $587, almost exactly the 20-day EMA at $586.12. Seasonality therefore points to a retest of that average, not a break lower. Reaching the average-year level near $667 would take a catalyst on the scale of 2016 or 2017, and none is in view.

The “eighth positive in nine years” is my count from your table, and the $587 and $667 are my calculations from today’s price. The Expert Insight and the “Is November a good month for Monero?” FAQ already use the same figures, so they still match.

Wagyu Confirms a Data Leak That Links Swap Deposits to Monero Addresses

The Defiant reported on October 29 that Monero swap service Wagyu.xyz confirmed three months of its data had leaked. Threat intelligence firm Hudson Rock found 4,580 completed cross-chain-to-XMR orders in which a deposit transaction ID, a Monero receiving address and a client IP address sat in the same row, including 1,011 Bitcoin-to-Monero orders. In all, it counted 38,628 order records and 10,139 distinct IP addresses covering July 18 to October 26.

Wagyu’s operator said on October 28 that the last three months of data had leaked, that no money was lost and that swaps were not affected. An October 27 listing on the WhiteArmor site, archived by RansomLook, demanded $5 million.

Related: Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP (XRP)

Hudson Rock has not independently authenticated the files, and its counts do not show how many people were affected, since one person can use several IP addresses and VPNs can put many people behind one. The records sit at the swap service, and the analysis does not show a breach of Monero’s cryptography or where XMR moves after it enters the network.

Kraken Drops Its XMR Customer Questionnaires and Keeps Monero Listed

Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi said on October 24 that the exchange withdrew requests asking customers what they planned to do with XMR they bought or withdrew.

He said the questions were not required and that Kraken will keep supporting XMR listing and withdrawals. That does not apply everywhere, since Kraken’s notice separately restricts Indian residents, with trading and withdrawals halted earlier this year.

Monero’s FCMP++ Upgrade Moves Through Testing With No Mainnet Date

Monero developers released beta stressnet v3.1 on October 26, according to the project’s GitHub release. It adds faster wallet scanning and denial-of-service protections and fixes an inflation vulnerability on the experimental network. 

FCMP++ would replace the current ring of 16 outputs, the set of decoys a spend hides among, with proofs covering eligible outputs across the whole blockchain. The release is for testing only, and no mainnet launch date has been announced.

Monero Price Prediction: Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for November

Bullish Case, Target: $658

XMR holds the 50-day EMA at $554.05, closes above the channel’s upper line near $624 and the R4 pivot at $627, and opens the late-October wick high near $658, with the R5 pivot at $714 beyond it. A November closer to the +11.6% average than the -1.85% median would fit this path.

Bearish Case, Risk Level: $534 (Channel Median Line)

XMR closes below the 50-day EMA at $554.05 and slides toward the channel’s median line near $534. A close below that level would put the R3 pivot area near $504 and the 100-day EMA at $506.54 in play, with the 200-day EMA at $454.36 beneath them.

Related: Hyperliquid Price Prediction: Can HYPE Reach $100 in November as ICE Picks Hyperliquid for US Perps?

FAQs