- Peter Brandt predicts Bitcoin could fall below $50K before reaching its bear market bottom in early October.
- Brandt says true market bottoms require capitulation, with widespread bearish sentiment.
- Despite near-term weakness, Brandt sees Bitcoin climbing to $250K-$300K by 2029.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin has yet to reach its bear market low. He predicts BTC could fall below $50,000, potentially into the high-$40,000 range before bottoming in October.
He shared this view during an interview with Ciaran Lyons. Brandt cautioned that his outlook is a forecast rather than a certainty. He added that he has maintained for months that Bitcoin’s current cycle has further downside before a durable recovery begins.
Brandt expects Bitcoin to bottom in October
Brandt said he believes Bitcoin is “heading down somewhere probably south of $50,000,” adding that the asset’s notorious volatility means prices could even briefly overshoot lower levels.
He projected that the market would likely establish a bottom in early October, specifically pointing to Oct. 4 as his best estimate, while acknowledging that the timing could prove incorrect.
According to Brandt, Bitcoin may experience a relief rally first, potentially gaining around $10,000 before resuming its downward trend toward a final cycle low.
Capitulation, not neutral sentiment, marks a true bottom
Brandt argued that current market sentiment does not resemble the type of panic typically seen at major bear market lows.
He said markets generally bottom only after widespread capitulation, when even long-term believers abandon their bullish outlook. In Bitcoin’s case, he expects sentiment to shift from today’s relatively neutral stance to widespread pessimism, with investors declaring that “Bitcoin’s time has come and gone.”
While some traders believe the current price region around $60,000 could represent the bottom, Brandt said he expects stronger selling pressure before a lasting recovery begins.
He added that even if Bitcoin ultimately holds near current levels, he still expects the cycle low to occur around October rather than during the summer.
Mature market could limit downside
Brandt noted that previous Bitcoin bear markets have frequently resulted in drawdowns exceeding 80% from cycle highs.
Applied mechanically to Bitcoin’s recent peak above $120,000, such a decline would imply prices falling into the $20,000 range. However, Brandt said he does not expect history to repeat exactly.
Instead, he argued that Bitcoin has matured significantly as an asset, reducing the likelihood of the extreme downside volatility seen in earlier market cycles.
Long-term BTC outlook remains bullish
Despite his near-term bearish outlook, Brandt remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
He described Bitcoin as a superior store of value that, alongside gold, could ultimately share the role of the world’s leading wealth-preservation assets.
Looking beyond the expected October bottom, Brandt said he believes Bitcoin could rally to between $250,000 and $300,000 before peaking in 2029, suggesting the next major bull market could extend well beyond 2027.
While emphasizing that such long-term price targets are speculative, Brandt said he sees Bitcoin’s adoption and increasing maturity supporting substantially higher valuations over time.
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