XRP Price Prediction 2026: Will XRP Reach $2.80 or Stay Stuck Below $1.15?

• CLARITY Act passage odds dropped from 74% to 32% on Polymarket as the ethics dispute blocks the seven Democratic votes needed to clear cloture.
• XRP leverage on Binance deflated to early 2024 lows after a 790% surge during the 2025 rally.
• XRP spot ETFs returned $6.78M in weekly inflows the week of July 17, lifting cumulative net inflows to $1.49B.

XRP trades at $1.0879 on July 18, pinned at the apex of a descending wedge while the CLARITY Act’s passage odds collapse from 74% to 32% over a dispute about politicians’ own crypto holdings. The chart and the Senate calendar are both running out of room at the same time.

XRP Price Today: Descending Wedge at Its Tightest Point Since June

XRP has been compressing inside a descending wedge since the May 2026 peak near $1.57. Both trendlines converged at current price by July 18, leaving almost no room for further sideways movement. A directional break is no longer optional; the chart structure demands one.

All four EMAs slope downward above current price, keeping overhead supply intact at every timeframe. The 20-day EMA at $1.1006 is the first ceiling, sitting just above the Bollinger midline at $1.0979. Above that, the 50-day EMA at $1.1488 and the Bollinger upper band at $1.1609 form a resistance cluster between $1.15 and $1.16 that would need a clean close above it for any meaningful recovery to gain traction.

XRP Support and Resistance Levels — July 18, 2026

What the Weekly Chart Adds

The weekly chart shows XRP in a sustained downtrend since the July 2025 peak near $3.60. The weekly Parabolic SAR at $1.2840 remains bearish above price, confirming the higher timeframe trend has not shifted. Price is sitting on a horizontal support band between $1.00 and $1.10 that has held through multiple tests since late June. That band is the last meaningful floor before open air below $1.00.

The weekly RSI at 33.53 sits just below its signal line at 34.77, putting XRP in near-oversold territory. On weekly timeframes, this RSI zone has historically preceded either a sharp bounce or a final capitulation flush before one. The outcome depends on whether a catalyst arrives to support demand at this level.

CLARITY Act: Odds Collapsed from 74% to 32% as the Clock Runs Out

A House Financial Services Committee hearing at Federal Hall on July 17 produced no vote and no breakthrough. Industry witnesses from WisdomTree and Coin Center pushed for Senate action, warning the US risks ceding crypto business overseas, and Subcommittee Chair Bryan Steil urged the Senate to act before adjourning.

Three disputes are blocking the bill. Democrats want an ethics clause targeting officials’ crypto holdings, a demand sharpened after Trump disclosed roughly $1.4B in crypto income. A merged draft dropped that provision, prompting Senators Murphy, Van Hollen, and Merkley to formally oppose the bill on July 15. 

Attorney John Deaton called the situation absurd, noting the bill most likely to bring crypto regulatory clarity could die over the crypto holdings of the people meant to regulate it. Section 604, a developer-protection clause, has split law enforcement opinion, and banks are lobbying against stablecoin yield provisions separately.

The bill needs roughly seven Democratic crossover votes to clear the 60-vote cloture threshold. Only two are currently committed. Passage-by-end-of-2026 odds have fallen from 74% a month ago to 32% on Polymarket and Kalshi, with August-specific passage in the low single digits. Galaxy Digital holds a more optimistic 60% estimate, but the Senate has roughly 20 working days before the August 7 recess runs out the clock.

XRP ETF Flows Returned Positive But Remain Modest

XRP spot ETFs logged $6.78M in weekly net inflows for the week ending July 17, recovering from the $7.18M outflow the prior week. Cumulative net inflows across all five US products now sit at $1.49B with total net assets at $991.51M, slipping just below the $1B threshold.

The weekly flow pattern has been broadly positive since April but never large enough to move price on its own, with the biggest single week of $60.50M in mid-May coinciding with a price spike that ultimately failed to hold.

XRP Leverage Flushed to 2024 Lows: What That Means for Price?

Analyst Xaif Crypto flagged one of the quieter but more meaningful shifts in XRP’s market structure: leverage on Binance has deflated to levels not seen since early 2024. That reading stands in stark contrast to the 790% leverage surge that accompanied the 2025 rally to $3.60.

The mechanics behind this signal are straightforward. When leverage collapses after a sustained price decline, speculative traders who were chasing momentum have been forced out or have voluntarily exited. The remaining positioning is held by participants with longer time horizons who are less likely to sell on minor moves downward. That combination creates the conditions for a sharp move once demand arrives.

The catch is that depleted leverage is a condition, not a catalyst. It removes the fuel for further forced selling but does not by itself generate buying pressure. For XRP, the CLARITY Act remains the most obvious candidate to supply that catalyst before the August recess.

XRP Price Forecast: Monthly Targets Through December 2026

XRP Price Prediction 2026: Upside and Downside Targets

Upside case: The descending wedge breaks higher, the CLARITY Act clears the Senate before the August recess, ETF flows accelerate above $50M weekly, and XRP reclaims the 50-day EMA at $1.1488 as a launchpad toward $1.2446 and beyond. A full regulatory clarity outcome by Q4 opens a path toward the $2.00 area and potentially higher into year-end as institutional positioning builds.

Downside case: The wedge breaks lower toward the $1.00 June floor, the CLARITY Act stalls past the August recess into midterm-season distraction, and XRP grinds sideways to lower through Q3 with the 200-day EMA at $1.4502 remaining out of reach for the rest of 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions: XRP Price and CLARITY Act 2026

What is the XRP price prediction for 2026?

XRP trades at $1.0879 on July 18, 2026, compressing inside a descending wedge that demands a directional break. The monthly forecast ranges from $1.00-$1.20 in July to $1.80-$2.80 in December 2026 in the bull case. Passage of the CLARITY Act before the August 7 Senate recess is the primary catalyst separating those two paths.

What is the CLARITY Act and why does it matter for XRP?

The CLARITY Act is a US Senate bill that would define when a digital asset is a commodity versus a security. For XRP, passage removes the regulatory uncertainty that has held back institutional adoption since the SEC lawsuit. Polymarket and Kalshi put passage odds at 32% as of July 2026, down from 74% a month earlier. The bill needs seven Democratic crossover votes and has two committed.

Why is the CLARITY Act stalling?

Three disputes are blocking the bill: a Democratic demand for an ethics clause targeting officials’ crypto holdings (dropped from a merged draft, prompting formal opposition from three senators on July 15), a law enforcement split over Section 604’s developer protections, and bank lobbying against stablecoin yield provisions. The Senate has roughly 20 working days before the August 7 recess.