- Grayscale CEO Peter Mintzberg filed to sell 2,611 GXRP shares at $20.45 as the trust’s total float dropped 51% in six months through redemptions
- XRP open interest on Binance fell to $369.6M, the lowest since 2024, as leveraged traders step back following the hawkish Fed hold
- August has a -6.57% median return for XRP across available history with nine red closes in twelve years of data
XRP trades at $1.0796 on July 30, up 0.5%, pressing against the yearly downtrend resistance at the apex of the descending wedge as the Grayscale CEO files to sell, Binance open interest hits a two-year low, and the CLARITY Act vote hangs on days before the August 8 recess.
XRP Is At The Yearly Downtrend Resistance And The Wedge Apex
The daily chart shows XRP at the convergence point of the descending wedge, with both trendlines meeting near current price. The Bollinger midline at $1.0962 sits just above as the first resistance, followed by the 20-day EMA at $1.0953. Those two levels align into a tight cluster between $1.09 and $1.10 that has capped multiple recovery attempts through July.
The Bollinger upper band at $1.1391 and the 50-day EMA at $1.1289 form the next resistance zone. The lower Bollinger Band at $1.0533 defines the immediate floor, with the $1 round number and June low as the last defense below. Rand Group noted the yearly downtrend resistance aligns at current price, calling it a key squeeze and a decision point.
What Are The Key Support And Resistance Levels For XRP In August?
Resistance
- $1.0962 — Bollinger midline, immediate ceiling
- $1.0953 — 20-day EMA, aligns with Bollinger midline into one cluster
- $1.1289 — 50-day EMA
- $1.1391 — Bollinger upper band and wedge upper trendline zone
- $1.2133 — 100-day EMA, extended recovery target
Support
- $1.0533 — Lower Bollinger Band
- $1.0000 — Round number and June low, last floor
- No established support below $1.00
Has August Historically Been Strong For XRP?
The XRP monthly returns table gives August a -6.57% median across twelve years of data according to CryptoRank. August has closed red nine of those twelve years, with losses including -26.6% in 2023, -23% in 2018, -19.2% in 2019, -13.6% in 2022, -9.17% in 2024, and -8.15% in 2025.
The two meaningful exceptions were +59.9% in 2021 during the broad altcoin mania and +73.2% in 2018 as a single anomalous outlier. The average sits at +0.43%, entirely distorted by those two outlier years. The base expectation heading into August is negative.
XRP August 2026 Weekly Forecast
| Period | Price Range | Outlook |
| Aug 1-8 | $1.00 – $1.15 | CLARITY Act final window, Iran escalation risk, Fed hawkish repricing |
| Aug 9-20 | $0.98 – $1.18 | Post-recess direction, SEC regulatory fallback narrative develops |
| Aug 21-31 | $0.95 – $1.22 | September FOMC pricing dominates, seasonal weakness historically peaks |
Grayscale CEO Filed To Sell GXRP As The Trust Lost Half Its Float
Grayscale CEO Peter Mintzberg filed a Form 144 on July 28, indicating intent to sell 2,611 shares of the Grayscale XRP Trust at $20.45 per share through Cantor Fitzgerald, a transaction valued at $53,394. He remains the third Grayscale insider to file a GXRP notice, following Barry Silbert in January and chief legal officer Craig Salm also in January, both of whom filed near $37 per share, roughly 45% above where Mintzberg is marking his block today.
The more significant data point in the filing is the share count. January filings listed 5,790,100 shares outstanding. Mintzberg’s July notice lists 2,840,100, a drop of approximately 2,950,000 shares in six months. That 51% reduction in the trust’s float comes entirely from redemptions outpacing creations, leaving GXRP at roughly $58M in assets and approximately 6% of the $988.70M total XRP ETF category. Grayscale has not publicly explained the redemption pace.
XRP ETF Cumulative Inflows Cross $1.50B As Binance OI Hits Two-Year Low
Spot XRP ETFs recorded $584.71K in daily net inflows on July 29, with Franklin’s XRPZ driving the entire figure. Cumulative net inflows across all five products crossed $1.50B for the first time, with total net assets at $988.70M remaining just below the $1B threshold.
Against that, CryptoQuant analysts flagged that XRP open interest on Binance fell to approximately $369.6M, the lowest reading since 2024. The decline followed the Fed’s hawkish hold and signals leveraged traders pulling back from XRP positions, removing the speculative momentum that drove the token’s last meaningful rally.
XRP Price Prediction August 2026: Upside and Downside Targets
- Upside case: The wedge breaks above the yearly downtrend resistance near $1.10, the CLARITY Act passes before August 8, cumulative ETF inflows crossing $1.50B attract fresh institutional attention, and XRP targets the 50-day EMA at $1.1289 and Bollinger upper band at $1.1391 as the Grayscale redemption narrative fades.
- Downside case: The wedge breaks lower through the $1.0533 Bollinger lower band, Binance open interest continues contracting, August seasonal weakness follows its historical -6.57% median, and XRP retests the $1.00 June low as Grayscale’s redemption pace and the hawkish Fed backdrop keep institutional demand on the sidelines through the recess.
Related: AEON Price Prediction: Rising Open Interest Signals Bigger Moves Ahead After 22% Daily Surge
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