XRP Price Prediction: Bulls Target $1.16 as Weak Spot Demand Limits Recovery

• XRP must reclaim $1.1642 to confirm recovery and strengthen bullish momentum.
• Open interest near $2.5B signals cautious traders awaiting stronger market conviction.
• Persistent spot outflows continue to limit XRP’s recovery despite recent price rebound.

XRP has started a tentative recovery after falling to $1.0088, but traders still face several hurdles before confirming a broader trend reversal. The token recently climbed to around $1.1346 as buyers returned following weeks of weakness. 

However, XRP remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages. That technical structure continues to limit the strength of the current rebound. 

XRP Rebound Meets a Major Technical Test

The first major challenge sits between $1.1448 and $1.1642, where several technical barriers could limit further gains. XRP must clear the 50-day EMA near $1.1448 to strengthen its short-term recovery signal.

Moreover, the $1.1642 level marks the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and represents another important breakout hurdle. A sustained daily close above this area could attract additional buyers and improve market sentiment.

If bullish momentum continues, XRP could advance toward $1.2318, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. Beyond that level, resistance strengthens near $1.2950 before the 200-day EMA at $1.4344.

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However, a rejection near the $1.1448-$1.1642 zone could quickly weaken the recovery. XRP could then revisit $1.0757, while a break below $1.0088 would expose the market to deeper losses.

Falling Open Interest Highlights Reduced Risk Appetite

XRP’s derivatives market also reflects a more cautious trading environment. Open interest has dropped sharply from levels above $10 billion during the previous major rally.

The latest reading stands near $2.53 billion as of July 23. This decline suggests traders have reduced leveraged positions while XRP struggled to maintain upward momentum.

Significantly, open interest now appears to stabilize around $2.5 billion. A renewed rise alongside higher prices could indicate that traders are rebuilding bullish positions.

Conversely, another sharp decline in open interest could signal continued risk aversion. Hence, traders may closely monitor whether fresh capital enters the market during XRP’s latest recovery attempt.

Persistent Outflows Keep Pressure on XRP

Spot market flows add another layer of caution to the outlook. XRP has recorded frequent negative netflows, with outflows generally exceeding inflows throughout the observed period.

Additionally, several sharp outflow spikes suggest increased selling activity or transfers away from exchanges. The latest data showed a net outflow of roughly $3.37 million on July 23.

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Although occasional inflows indicate temporary buying interest, they have failed to establish a sustained shift in market demand. Therefore, XRP’s recovery still requires stronger spot accumulation.

Technical Outlook For XRP Price

Key levels remain well-defined as XRP attempts to extend its short-term recovery: 

• Upside levels: $1.1448 and $1.1642 represent immediate resistance, while a confirmed breakout could open the path toward $1.2318 and $1.2950. 

• Downside levels: $1.1144 and $1.1070 provide initial support, followed by $1.0757 and the major $1.0088 swing low. 

• Resistance ceiling: $1.4344, marked by the 200-day EMA, remains the key level XRP must reclaim to confirm a broader medium-term bullish reversal.

The technical picture suggests XRP is attempting to recover from its $1.0088 low, with buyers gradually regaining control above the 20-day EMA. However, the broader trend remains bearish to neutral as XRP trades below its longer-term moving averages. A decisive breakout above the $1.1448–$1.1642 resistance cluster could trigger stronger momentum toward $1.2318 and potentially $1.2950.

Will XRP Go Up?

XRP’s price outlook hinges on whether buyers can defend the $1.1070–$1.1144 support area while challenging the $1.1448–$1.1642 resistance zone. If bullish momentum strengthens alongside rising open interest and improved spot inflows, XRP could advance toward $1.23 and $1.30. 

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However, persistent exchange outflows and subdued speculative positioning could limit the recovery. Failure to hold $1.0757 could expose XRP to the critical $1.0088 support level. For now, XRP remains at a pivotal technical juncture, with the next major move likely depending on breakout confirmation and renewed market participation.