- XRP trades near $1 as traders brace for CPI-driven volatility in the coming hours.
- Leverage is rising while spot and futures buying weaken.
- A soft CPI could spark a breakout, while hot inflation may push XRP lower.
XRP is stuck in a tight range. But under the surface, traders are getting ready for a big move. All eyes are on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a monthly inflation reading that shakes crypto and stock markets.
XRP is trading at $1.01, up 1.48% today. It touched $0.9916 yesterday, the first time it dropped below $1 since November 2024. The token is down 4.26% over the past week and down 46% since the start of the year.
That puts XRP in a narrow near-term range between roughly $0.99 and $1.01. A sustained move above $1.10 would signal a potential breakout, while a break below the $0.99 area could open the door to further downside.
Why CPI Is the Key Catalyst for XRP
The CPI report measures how much prices for everyday goods and services have changed. When inflation comes in higher or lower than expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates becomes easier or harder to predict. That, in turn, moves risk assets like crypto.
The July CPI report is due out on August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which tracks inflation at the wholesale level, follows soon after.
Together, these two reports are shaping up as the biggest short-term price driver for XRP and the wider crypto market.
Derivatives data backs this up. On Binance, XRP’s 7-day open interest (the total value of outstanding futures contracts) swung from roughly -13% on August 1 to +7.4% on August 11 — a shift of more than 20 percentage points. That means traders have been rebuilding leveraged positions heading into the report.
At the same time, selling pressure has grown. Binance’s Perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), a measure of net buying versus selling in futures markets, fell from about -$251 million to -$349.5 million over the same period.
Spot CVD across all major exchanges dropped from around +$193 million to -$34.3 million — a shift of about $227 million toward net selling.
Put together, this means more leveraged money is on the table, and it’s positioned defensively, right as a major inflation report lands. That combination tends to raise the odds of a sharp move once the data drops.
Could Spot Buying and Exchange Outflows Signal Accumulation?
While derivatives traders hedge their bets, there are signs of quieter buying happening elsewhere.
According to Santiment, the number of wallets holding at least 1 million XRP increased from around 2,006 to 2,038 over the past three months, adding 32 large-holder wallets even as XRP’s market capitalization fell by about 29%.
Meanwhile, exchange activity also points to a lack of heavy selling into Binance. XRP deposit addresses on the exchange fell about 96% compared with their monthly and quarterly averages, while XRP deposits and withdrawals dropped 79% and 85%, respectively, from their 90-day averages.
Strong spot buying combined with XRP flowing out of exchanges can point to accumulation. When coins leave exchanges, it often means holders are moving them into private wallets for longer-term storage, rather than keeping them ready to sell.
If this trend continues, it implies short-term traders are bracing for volatility around CPI, while some holders quietly build positions for the longer term.
What Could Happen After CPI
A few outcomes are possible once the July CPI numbers are released:
- Inflation comes in lower than expected: This could support hopes for interest rate cuts, often a bullish setup for risk assets like XRP, and could help fuel a breakout above its current range.
- Inflation comes in higher than expected: This could reduce hopes for near-term rate cuts, pressuring risk assets and potentially pushing XRP toward its recent lows near $0.99.
- Inflation comes in roughly in line with forecasts: XRP could stay range-bound a while longer, with the rebuilt leverage in the derivatives market slowly unwinding.
Given the scale of the leverage rebuild and the deteriorating spot and futures flow data heading into the report, XRP looks primed for a bigger move than usual.
The key levels to watch are therefore $0.99 on the downside and $1.10 on the upside, with a sustained break beyond either boundary likely to provide a signal of XRP’s next directional move.
Related: XRP Price Prediction: Can XRP’s Rarest Monthly Buy Signal Overcome Fading ETF Flows?
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