- $11B in Bitcoin options expire October 30, putting BTC’s $75K–$82K price range in focus.
- Put options outnumber calls by over 2:1 below $80K, raising concerns about downside pressure.
- US midterm election uncertainty could fuel bigger Bitcoin price swings in November.
Bitcoin traders are preparing for possible price swings as about $11 billion in Bitcoin options expire on October 30. This represents roughly one-third of all open Bitcoin options on Deribit.
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 earlier this week and traded around $79,600 on Thursday, October 29. The options expiry could increase market volatility as traders adjust their positions.
Bitcoin’s $75,000–$82,000 Range in Focus
About 70% of the expiring options’ gamma is concentrated between $75,000 and $82,000, according to Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group.
Gamma measures how quickly an option’s sensitivity to Bitcoin’s price changes. As prices move, dealers may buy or sell Bitcoin to manage risk, amplifying price movements.
Haeems warned that if dealers are positioned for a price decline, their hedging activity could push Bitcoin toward $75,000-$78,000.
Below $80,000, put options outnumber call options by more than two to one. Put options allow traders to sell Bitcoin at a set price and are often used to protect against losses. Call options allow traders to buy Bitcoin at a set price. This imbalance puts Bitcoin’s downside risk in focus if its price remains below $80,000.
$90,000–$100,000 Call Options Face Expiry
Many Bitcoin call options are set at $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000. With Bitcoin trading near $80,000, these options are unlikely to pay out unless the price rises significantly before expiry.
These high price targets suggest that traders had expected Bitcoin to rally. Meanwhile, the options expiry does not guarantee that Bitcoin will rise or fall. Traders will watch whether BTC stays near $80,000 or drops toward $75,000–$78,000.
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US Midterm Elections to Increase Bitcoin Volatility
Market uncertainty could continue after Friday’s options expiry as traders prepare for the November 3 US midterm elections.
Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, expects some options sellers to wait until the election results are clearer before opening new positions. This could reduce the number of options available to help manage price swings, leaving Bitcoin more exposed to sudden moves.
The election results could also affect expectations for the Trump administration’s crypto-friendly policies. A Bloomberg Markets Pulse survey found that the median Bitcoin price forecast for the end of the year varied depending on the election outcome:
- $90,800 if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress.
- $76,450 if Democrats control both chambers.
- $84,100 if Congress is split.
Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, also expects Bitcoin volatility to increase in November after a relatively quiet year. In sum, the options expiry and election uncertainty could lead to bigger Bitcoin price swings in either direction. Neither event guarantees a price rise or a decline.
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Related: Bitcoin and the 2026 Midterms: What If Trump Loses Control of Congress?
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