- Over 10.46 million BTC are now held at a loss after Bitcoin dropped to $59,000 this week.
- Ali Charts identifies $62,800, $55,000, and $42,500 as three-layered Bitcoin DCA entry levels.
- MVRV bands at $53,900 and $43,150 historically mark premier Bitcoin accumulation windows.
Bitcoin is attempting a bounce after one of its sharpest weekly declines of 2026. The daily RSI has dropped into extreme oversold territory, worse than the readings seen during February’s lows, which themselves represented historic extremes.
Multiple analysts are describing current conditions as among the most oversold readings they have seen in years across both daily and weekly timeframes.
Bitcoin’s drop to $59,000 has pushed more than 10.46 million BTC into unrealized loss territory. According to analyst Ali Charts, that number matters more than most people realize. Every single time the supply-in-loss metric has crossed the 10 million threshold in Bitcoin’s history, it has accurately marked a macro bottom.
“With this move down to $59,000, more than 10.46 million BTC is currently held at a loss,” Ali Charts wrote. “Historically, every time the supply-in-loss metric crosses this extreme 10 million threshold, it has accurately timed macro bottoms.”
Analyst is Watching The DCA Levels
The analyst published a layered accumulation framework based on long-term moving averages for anyone planning to dollar-cost average (DCA) ahead of the next bull market:
- $62,800: 200-week simple moving average, current support zone
- $55,000: 300-week simple moving average, next meaningful floor
- $42,500: 400-week simple moving average, deepest accumulation target
The MVRV Signal
Ali Charts also pointed to MVRV Pricing Bands as historically reliable indicators of premier accumulation windows. The MVRV model compares Bitcoin’s market price with the average acquisition cost of coins in circulation, helping identify periods when the asset may be undervalued or overvalued.
Two specific levels stand out:
- $53,900: The 1.0 MVRV band where the average holder is roughly at breakeven
- $43,150: The 0.8 MVRV band where the average holder is underwater
Historically, these zones have represented the strongest accumulation windows across previous Bitcoin cycles. When price settles within these bands, the majority of short-term sellers have already exited, and the remaining holders tend to be long-term conviction buyers.
He argued that Bitcoin is nearing a market bottom and that technical and on-chain indicators point to the beginning of a major macro accumulation cycle rather than a period for panic selling or chasing short-term volatility.
Related: Bitcoin’s World Cup Curse: 2014, 2018, 2022 – Is 2026 Next?
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